Iran's massive volley of fire towards Israel this weekend turned the two countries' long shadow war into a direct confrontation, and brought the two countries' old paradigm of delivering carefully calculated blows into the open. There were growing concerns that the violence had been replaced by something more violent and risky.
However, as of Monday, Israel had not yet responded to the Iranian attack. Rather than preparing the nation for a showdown with its biggest rival, the government signaled a return to relative normalcy, lifting restrictions on large gatherings and allowing schools to reopen.
Some right-wing Israeli politicians are disappointed by the lack of immediate action, arguing that Israel needs to strike back quickly and forcefully or risk losing its deterrence. Other more centrist officials argue that Israel should take its time and take advantage of the support it has received from allies and regional players angry about Israel's war in Gaza. .
If Israel responds forcefully, it risks angering President Biden. President Biden has urged Israel to de-escalate tensions, and Israel will require military assistance in the event of a major conflict. Israel has already drawn criticism from the president for prolonging the war in Gaza. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu must now weigh the benefits of retaliation against the risk of further displeasure with the president and the potential human and economic costs of fighting two wars at once.
An Israeli official briefed on ministerial talks on condition of anonymity to discuss security issues said several options were being considered as of Monday, ranging from diplomacy to an imminent attack, but beyond that. Details were not disclosed.
So the next steps in the conflict remain unclear.
Analysts said the nature of Israel's response could increase or decrease the likelihood of a regional war. And that could improve or strain Israel's relations with Arab countries that share anti-Iran sentiment but are critical of the Gaza war.
It's also possible that Israel and Iran simply return to the established norms of shadow warfare, in which Israel assassinates individuals, Iranian proxies fire salvoes at Israel, and both sides exchange cyberattacks. .
“It's too early to tell,” said Dana Stroll, who until recently served as a senior Pentagon official for the Middle East. “From an Israeli security perspective, it's hard to see how Israel could leave this situation alone,” Stroll said. “The question is what that looks like and how can we send a clear policy and signal to Iran while avoiding World War III in the Middle East.”
If the trajectory of the coming days remains frustratingly uncertain, the events of the past 48 hours have brought new clarity to the conflict.
Sunday's attack marked the first time Iran sent hundreds of exploding drones and missiles toward Israeli territory, mostly from its own territory, after Israel killed seven Iranian officials in Syria earlier this month. It was retaliation for that.
Militarily speaking, Iran's attacks signaled its readiness to confront Israel directly, rather than using regional proxies like Lebanon's Hezbollah, thereby challenging Israel's assumptions about Iran's risk threshold. overturned.
On the diplomatic front, Iran's attack and Israel's robust defense against it, in conjunction with Western and Arab partners, helped to divert the international community's attention away from Israel's war in Gaza. The Gaza war has reportedly caused more than 33,000 deaths, leading to accusations that Israel strongly denies. , of genocide.
Just as Israel's closest allies were increasing their criticism of the Israeli military's actions in Gaza, the Iranian attack prompted these allies to work closely with the same Israeli air force that carried out devastating attacks in Gaza. I was encouraged to do so.
Itamar Rabinovich, former Israeli ambassador to the United States, said: “We can see that Israel's diplomatic standing has improved somewhat, not only among Arabs but also among Western European countries, because Israel is not an aggressor; Because they were victims of Iranian aggression.” “Being a ‘victim’ improves your position.”
Analysts say it remains unclear how Israel's defenses will perform without the days of warning Iran issued before the weekend's attack, which has given Israel and its allies critical warnings for preparedness. He said he was able to gain a lot of time. And while Iran said it would respond “pretty harshly” to any Israeli “mistakes” in the future, that threat remains untested and vague enough to leave room for maneuver. was.
Analysts say the friendship Israel has recently built with its allies could quickly disappear if it strikes back against Iran in a way that drags the region into war.
For Iranian leaders, although the attack caused limited damage and seriously injured one child, it was a domestic and diplomatic victory in that it showed Iran to stand up to Israel. It became.
Domestically, Iranian leaders have had to face accusations that they were too passive after past Israeli attacks on Iranian officials. Analysts said the salvo also reassured Iran's allies and proxies such as Lebanon and Yemen that Iran was willing to take the risk of attacking Israel from its own territory. And they said Iran has given rise to rival Middle Eastern leaders who have frequently criticized Israel in public while working secretly with the Iranian government.
Iran “wants to assume the role of guardian of the Islamic world,” said Narges Bajoghli, an Iran expert at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington. “They are essentially serving a regional audience and at the same time showing the weakness of the region's Arab leaders,” she says. “Arab countries have never confronted Israel directly like Iran.”
The opposite was true. At least one Arab country, Jordan, is directly involved in repelling the Iranian attack, while other countries covertly target Israel by sharing intelligence and transmitting data collected from missile detection sensors. It is believed that he supported
Israel's eastern neighbor, Jordan, has a large Palestinian population and has regularly criticized the Gaza war. But he still acknowledged that Iranian targets had been “addressed” in Jordanian airspace and that the country's military would repel similar attacks in the future.
The announcement comes after Iran began facilitating Israel's diplomatic integration within the Middle East region before the Gaza war, allowing for increased military cooperation between Israel and some Arab states, including arms deals and joint training. It was a reminder that we shared the concern that it was starting to happen.
This is why, for some Israeli analysts, an Iranian attack could help Israel gain acceptance in the Middle East, even as Israel's reputation has plummeted because of Gaza.
“The details of how Arab Sunni regimes defended Israel and undoubtedly saved Israeli lives from Iranian missiles and drones may not be known for some time. Change,” wrote Israeli commentator Anshel Pfeffer in a column for the left-wing newspaper Haaretz. “Arab cooperation in attacking Iran proves that the trend in the region remains toward an Arab-American-Israeli alliance against Iran and its proxies.”
In particular, some hope it will give new impetus to the U.S.-led effort to seal diplomatic ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia for the first time, which seemed close to success before the Gaza war.
In 2019, a Saudi oil refinery was attacked by Yemen's Iranian-backed Houthi militia. Riyadh seeks increased security cooperation with the US to prevent similar invasions in the future, but a deal suggested by the US could only happen if Riyadh also formally recognizes and works with Israel It is said that there is a high possibility that it will.
But as long as the Gaza conflict continues, such an agreement remains unlikely, and Israel's right-wing government has avoided any discussion of creating a post-fighting Palestinian state, a key demand from Saudi Arabia.
“Diplomatically, we will try to take advantage of this and try to revive and revitalize regional cooperation,” said Rabinovitch, a former Israeli ambassador. “However, obstacles remain,” he added. “What should we do about the Palestine issue?”
Gabby Sobelman and Johnatan Reiss contributed reporting.