The sudden death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has ushered in a new chapter of instability just as the increasingly unpopular Islamic Republic grapples with choosing its next supreme leader. . Raisi, 63, had particular support from the powerful Revolutionary Guards and was seen as a front-runner.
Even before the helicopter crash that killed Raisi, the government was under pressure to deal with internal political and religious tensions as the health of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, 85, the longest-serving head of state in the Middle East, deteriorated. He was completely occupied with fighting.
But given concerns about instability at a time when the Islamic Republic is facing domestic protests, an economic downturn, endemic corruption and tensions with Israel, analysts have argued that Iran's foreign and domestic policies are We predict that there will be little change. Khamenei has set the direction for the country, and the new president is unlikely to change it significantly.
Ali Baez, head of the Iran International Crisis Group, said the regime was “already on track to ensure that the supreme leader's successor is fully aligned with his vision for the future of the regime.” “There is,” he said.
He described a “fairly hardline vision” that key areas of foreign policy would remain unchanged, including support for regional proxy militias and the development of components for nuclear weapons.
Whoever is chosen to be the next president, Baez said, “has to be someone who is in line with that vision, someone who is obedient.”
Elie Geranmae, an Iran expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, also sees continuity in major foreign policy issues such as regional issues and the nuclear program. “These files were under the control of the Supreme Leader of Iran and the Revolutionary Guards,” he said, referring to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, adding that “Mr. Raisi had little influence during his presidency.” Stated.
“Mr. Raisi was certainly useful to some factions of the IRGC,” Mr. Geranmayeh said. Raisi, unlike his predecessor Hassan Rouhani, is a more conservative loyalist who “did not challenge the IRGC in either domestic or foreign policy,” he said.
But he said criticism of Raisi's performance as president had already raised questions about whether he was the best successor to Khamenei.
Raisi's main rival was seen as Khamenei's son Mojtaba, 55, but his candidacy has been undermined by an atmosphere of monarchical succession.
Raisi's death may make it easier for Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his father. But the inner workings of Iran's religious and domestic politics are deliberately shrouded in mystery, with final decisions left to be made by a council of senior clerics known as the Council of Experts. Mojtaba Khamenei is considered the clergy's favorite, but they may choose their own person in the future or decide to have more collective leadership.
His father, the supreme leader, said: “We have worked hard to reduce unpredictability in the system by grooming President Raisi as a potential successor, but now all those plans are blank and we are back to square one.'' ” he said. Mr. Baez.
Externally, the challenges are also severe. Iran and Israel directly attacked each other in April, but Israel is already battling Iran's military proxies, Hamas in Gaza, and, less vividly, Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran also backs Yemen's Houthis, who have attacked ships in the Red Sea.
Iran seeks to avoid a major war between Hezbollah and Israel, and direct conflict with Israel is also unacceptable to the Islamic Republic.
China has held intermittent talks with the United States about calming regional conflicts and the future of its nuclear program. Raisi's death also threatens to complicate these negotiations.
Trita Parsi, an Iran expert at the Quincy Institute for Responsible State Strategy, said, “There is no love lost for Raisi in Washington, D.C., but the destabilization of Iran could come at a bad time.'' “Preventing the situation from escalating becomes even more difficult.”