As voting in Iran's presidential election got underway on Friday, early estimates from campaign officials suggest that only about one in four eligible voters has cast a ballot. The low turnout could be a blow to regime leaders who see voter participation as a measure of their legitimacy and had hoped for a 50% turnout, up from 70% in past presidential elections.
After enduring years of economic hardship and severe restrictions on personal and social freedoms, many Iranians say they are tired of empty promises from politicians who are either unwilling or unable to deliver on them. For some voters, refusing to vote was the only way to reject the government.
“The rift between the government and the people is deep,” said Omid Memarian, a senior analyst and human rights activist at the Washington think tank DAWN. “From university students to women, political prisoners, and people who have lost loved ones in the 2022 nationwide protests, there is a consensus that Iran needs much more change than what the regime is proposing.”
“People are tired of having to choose between the bad, the worse and the worst,” he added.
In the capital, Tehran, there were reports of some polling stations being empty. “The polling station where I voted today was empty,” said Mahdieh, a 41-year-old woman who gave only her first name out of fear of the authorities. “I voted without wearing a hijab,” she added, referring to rules that require women in Iran to cover their heads.
But in the pro-government centre and south of the capital, voters queued as voting was extended into the evening.
Milad, 22, from Karaj, a city outside the capital, said he has changed his mind and plans to vote for reformist candidate Dr. Masoud Pezeshkian. “Many Iranians are against radicalization and extremism,” he said. “Now there is a candidate who shows a different path and I want to give him a chance.”
The vote to choose a successor to President Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash in May, comes at a perilous time for the country, as the new president faces a host of challenges including domestic discontent and division, a struggling economy and a volatile region that has brought Iran to the brink of war twice this year.
The final result may not be known until tomorrow, but analysts expect the race to be a draw, with none of the three main candidates getting the 50% of the vote needed to avoid a runoff.
A pre-election poll on Iranian state television showed conservative candidates Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Saeed Jalili neck and neck, each with about 16 percent of the vote, while reformist candidate Dr. Pezeshkian received about 23 percent. If that holds, analysts say, it will lead to a runoff election on July 5 between the reformist candidate and the top conservative candidate.
This outcome might have been avoided if either of the conservatives had withdrawn, but amid bitter national divisions, neither Ghalibaf, a former IRGC commander who is now speaker of parliament, nor Jalili, a hardliner on both domestic and foreign policy, have backed down. Of the two, Ghalibaf is seen as the more pragmatic.
In the latest opinion polls, Pezeshkian had the most support of any candidate but was far from the 50 percent needed to avoid a runoff. “I come for Iran, to give a voice to the underprivileged regions and to listen to those who have not had their rights,” Dr Pezeshkian told reporters after voting in Ray, southeast of Tehran, according to the state-run Iranian News Agency.
Also running is Mostafa Pourmohammadi, a former intelligence official and cleric, but his candidacy has received little public support and opinion polls suggest he is likely to win less than 1% of the vote. He warned throughout the campaign that the Islamic Republic was losing its people and that voter turnout would be a major challenge.
Voting began at 8 a.m. local time on Friday and was expected to extend into the night to allow for a larger turnout.
Before the election, Iranian leaders, from Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to senior commanders of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, characterized the vote as an act of defiance against Iran’s enemies and an acknowledgement of the rule of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
As voting began on Friday morning, Khamenei called on Iranians to vote and to vote for their country regardless of who they support, saying voting was a national duty that would bring “dignity and credibility” to the country in the eyes of the world.
“This is a big political test for the country and I know some people have doubts and are undecided about what to do,” he said, “but I can tell them this is important and there are a lot of benefits, so why not do it?”
But his pleas appear to have gone unheeded: Iranian elections are tightly controlled, a committee of appointed clerics and jurists vets all candidates, the government goes to great lengths to suppress dissent in the press, and virtually all major national decisions in Iran, particularly foreign and nuclear policy, are made by Khamenei.
As a result, many Iranians appear to be continuing the boycott that began with the last major elections, either in protest or because they don't believe meaningful change can be brought about through the ballot box.
That frustration was underscored by four young women studying psychology at Tehran University as they bought makeup in the Tajrish Bazaar in northern Iran on Wednesday. They said they were outraged by the state of affairs in Iran but had no intention of voting.
“There is nothing we can do about this situation. We have no hope except for ourselves,” said Soghand, 19, who asked not to be identified for fear of the authorities. “But we want to stay in Iran for the sake of our children.”
She was wearing well-tailored black pants and a fitted jacket, and her brown hair was not covered, but she did have a scarf wrapped around her shoulders in case officials told her to do so. As for the rule that women must wear the hijab, she added simply, “We don't like it.”
On Friday, Tehran's Hosseinye Ershad, a domed, mosaic-covered religious site, was packed by midday with people lining up to vote.
Among them was Niima Saberi, 30, who said she supported the reformist Pezeshkian. “I believe everyone will come together under him,” she said. “He is a logical person, he is not an extremist and he respects people from all walks of life.”
Saberi and other members of the institute stressed that they appreciated Pezeshkian's efforts to crack down on corruption and build “better relations with the world” – a common euphemism for easing tensions with Western countries in order to lift sanctions.
The candidates were surprisingly forthright in their criticism of the current situation during the televised debate, demonstrating that an economy plagued by U.S. sanctions, corruption and mismanagement has become a top priority for voters and candidates, analysts said.
Analysts say the economy cannot be fixed without addressing foreign policy issues, including the conflict with the United States over Iran's nuclear program and concerns about Iranian military intervention in the region through a network of militant proxy groups.
“The elections could bring about small but significant changes rather than a sudden shift,” said Vali Nasr, a professor of international affairs and Middle Eastern studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington. “The leadership's calls for a different direction could lead the Islamic Republic to back down on some positions.”
While apathy remains high in most urban areas, voters in provinces with large Azerbaijani Turks and ethnic Kurdish populations were expected to turn out in larger numbers to support Pezeshkian, himself an Azerbaijani Turk who served as a member of parliament for the city of Tabriz, a major economic hub in northwestern East Azerbaijan. Pezeshkian has delivered election speeches in his native Turkish and Kurdish.
At a rally in Tabriz on Wednesday, the doctor was hailed as a national hero and a packed stadium sang Turkish nationalist songs, according to video and news reports. Ethnic and religious minorities rarely hold high office in Iran, so Azerbaijani activists say his presidential candidacy is generating interest and enthusiasm locally.
Rayleigh Niconazar He contributed reporting from Tehran.