Competition is an endangered species in parliamentary elections.
A New York Times analysis of nearly 6,000 congressional and state elections in November shows just how few races there really are. Almost all were held in districts where incumbents were dominant or overwhelmingly supported one party or another. The result has been a firestorm, even in a country so politically divided.
According to a Times analysis, only 8 percent of Congressional races (36 of 435) and 7 percent of state legislative races (400 of 5,465) were decided by fewer than 5 percentage points.
The effects of the loss of competition are immediately obvious. Currently, about 90 percent of races are determined not by voters in the November general election, but by partisans, who tend to vote in primaries months in advance. This favors candidates who appeal to ideological voters and legislators who are less likely to compromise. It has exacerbated polarization and led to gridlock in Congress and state legislatures.
“Because of partisan and racial gerrymandering, this Obama's attorney general, Eric H. Holder Jr., criticized the mapping process as chairman of the National Democratic Redistricting Commission, and at times criticized the mapping process. He said he even criticized party factions. Redistricting practices.
In 2020, the last year of the once-in-a-decade national exercise, both parties followed a largely similar strategy. Their maps typically made districts safer by bringing together voters of one party rather than dividing them to win seats. As the process-driven party in more states, Republicans won more of these tilt districts than Democrats.
Other factors, such as demographic changes and “political sorting” (the tendency of like-minded people to live in the same communities), are also contributing to the disappearance of competition. But when you zoom in on a single state, the role of redistricting becomes clear.
In Texas, for example, 10 of 38 congressional races were decided by less than 10 percentage points in 2020, before redistricting. In 2024, there will only be two races. In last year's five elections, the Democratic Party did not even field a candidate, and the seat was handed over to the Republicans. One Democratic Party member ran unopposed.
There are many safe seats in the state Legislature, where lawmakers are drawing maps for their districts.
Texas has 181 state legislative seats, 31 senators, and 150 representatives. Only four of the 2024 elections were decided by five points or less, three in the state House and one in the state Senate, according to a Times analysis.
“Congress draws maps in most places, but the reality is that the big concern for legislators who have to pass these bills is, 'What will happen to my district?'” Brennan said. said Michael Lee, senior advisor for the Center's Democracy Program. For justice. “There are very few legislators who are willing to say, ‘Oh my gosh, we should have more competitive districts.’ So there’s an inherent conflict of interest in the way districts are drawn.”
Adam Kincaid, director of the National Republican Redistricting Trust, said the goal is always to make seats safer.
“We made no bones about the fact that we were going to shore up incumbents, and if we had an opportunity to go on the offensive, we were going to do it,” Kincaid said. “So what this means is we take a lot of Republican seats off the board that would otherwise be at risk.”
the power of maps
It's easy to focus on the candidates, the money, the message, the economy, but increasingly it's the maps that determine the outcome. In North Carolina, they may have decided control of the U.S. House of Representatives.
Of the state's 14 congressional districts, only one was decided by less than five points. In the state's next closest election, Republicans won by a 14-point margin.
In 2022, the state Supreme Court ordered a more competitive map, but that map was thrown out after midterm elections shook the court's balance. The replacement plan chosen by the Republican-led Legislature gave Republicans three Democratic seats, making it safer for the party, which held nearly every district it held.
It is impossible to know how the elections held under the first map would have turned out. But Justin Levitt, a redistricting law expert at Loyola Law School in Los Angeles, said, “If all the seats were the same as they were in 2022, those three seats would make a difference, and Democrats would lose just one seat. It would have won a majority” in Congress.
Of course, North Carolina played a pivotal role because the margins in the House were so small. Gerrymanderers adjust the political balance every election, but the 2024 vote was a rare occasion in which they produced a decisive result.
North Carolina's role in the 2024 House elections follows a historic 2019 U.S. Supreme Court decision regarding North Carolina's partisan congressional map, which ruled that the court treats partisan gerrymandering as a political law outside the jurisdiction of federal courts. considered a problem.
Although these maps are “a blatant example of the partisanship driving redistricting,” the majority held that “state law and the state constitution can provide the standards and guidance that state courts should apply.” ” he wrote.
Other fights over the tilt of Congressional maps that could affect the 2026 election have gone largely unnoticed, including Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, and North Carolina (again). ), crawling through state and federal courts in South Carolina, Texas, and Utah.
Of all these lawsuits, the one in Utah appears to be the most likely to affect the upcoming House elections. Salt Lake City, the state's liberal capital, was divided into four districts in an effort to weaken Democratic voters' influence in House elections.
Democrats are likely to gain one House seat from the case, which will have a key court hearing on Friday.
national decline
North Carolina is no exception.
In Democratic-dominated Illinois, there were no legislative races within 5 points, and only two races within 10 points. In Maryland, only one district was within 5 points.
Out of Georgia's 14 House seats, there was not one congressional district within 10 points. The state's closest race was in the 2nd Congressional District, where Democratic Rep. Sanford Bishop won by 13 points.
At the state legislative level, the numbers were even starker.
In Georgia, only five (2%) of the 236 state legislative seats were decided within five points, and more than half of the races were unopposed. In Florida, 10 of the 160 state legislative races had margins of less than 5 points.
With so few general elections to worry about, tribalism can flourish in parliament, leaving many elected members to worry only about major challenges, often from the party's fringes. Masu. In today's climate of increasing political polarization, the lack of competitive constituencies not only removes incentives to cooperate with the other side, but actively discourages doing so.
“As the number of competitive districts diminishes, so does the incentive to compromise,” said Steve Israel, a former Democratic congressman from New York and former chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. . “I remember in my first election in 2000, I campaigned on a bipartisan basis in a very moderate district. By the time I left the race in 2017, talking about crossing the aisle became a personal thing. It was like announcing that I was going to walk to the firing squad.”
