Entrances to the United States from Mexico fell sharply last year. But countries south of the U.S. border are nervously waiting to see whether President-elect Donald J. Trump will order mass deportations.
The potential deportation of millions of illegal immigrants — the largest deportation program in U.S. history — has sent shockwaves across Latin America and sparked confusion among immigrants and asylum seekers. There is.
“We see dark times ahead for migrant communities,” said Irineo Mujica, Mexico director of People Without Borders. “Those who fell prey to the Trump administration will now be devoured, chewed up and spat out.”
What is the situation at the US-Mexico border?
Trump said Mexico was allowing immigrants to “infiltrate” the United States. However, the current situation on the ground tells a different story.
Illegal border crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border have declined since June, when President Biden issued an executive order effectively blocking asylum for illegal immigrants at the border.
That month, U.S. Border Patrol officials recorded 130,415 immigrant arrests, a significant decrease from the more than 170,710 they recorded the previous month. The number was even lower in November, when U.S. authorities recorded 94,190 deaths.
That's a big change from a year ago. The number of illegal immigrants in November 2023 exceeded 242,300, a record at the time.
How did the United States and Mexico reduce border crossings?
Critics, who say asylum is legal and a basic human right, say Biden's move is a short-term solution to a complex problem.
As part of Biden's order, restrictions would be lifted if fewer than 1,500 people attempt to cross illegally in a single day in a week. That's not happening. But border crossings have largely been closed, allowing authorities to deport people who cannot prove they would be at risk if they return to their home countries.
Mexico is also cracking down on people heading to the U.S. border.
The National Guard is stationed at immigration checkpoints from north to south. More recently, authorities have been moving migrants further south by bus, in what officials and scholars have dubbed the migrant merry-go-round. They were prevented from jumping on trains heading north, and the caravan was disbanded, no longer able to reach the U.S. border.
In 2023, Mexico suspended the issuance of humanitarian cards that allow asylum seekers to study, work and receive basic services in Mexico. under According to the law, they are supposed to remain in the state where they applied for asylum. But officials say many are using the cards to travel north without being detained.
According to Mexican security forces, more than 475,000 migrants were detained as a result of the suspension from October 1 to December 26, 2024, 68 more than were arrested during the same period in 2023. Government data shows that it is nearly a percentage higher.
What is the situation for migrants waiting in Mexico?
As Mexico's strategy changes, many migrants are stranded.
“Because we didn't give them cards, they couldn't access public services or enter the legal market,” said Andres Ramírez Silva, who until September chaired the country's Refugee Assistance Commission. It’s gone,” he said.
Advocacy groups have warned that the situation is unsustainable. More and more migrants are becoming easy prey for organized crime groups who extort them.
Mauro Pérez Bravo, former president of the National Migration Institute's Citizens' Council, said Mexico “continues to have a large influx of people.” But it added that they were living in “vulnerable conditions”, working in low-wage jobs or sleeping in shelters, junkyards, construction sites and on the streets.
How is Mexico preparing for mass deportations?
Mexican border states are working with the federal government to set up shelters with food and medical services.
They arrange transportation for Mexicans who wish to return to their home country. In Tijuana, a border town south of San Diego, city officials are working with churches, bus companies and humanitarian organizations to prepare for the arrival, said José Luis Pérez Canchola, director of the city's migration services agency.
He worries that mass deportations from the U.S. could further strain Tijuana's immigration resources, noting that many of the migrants are likely to be unaccompanied minors or in need of medical care. did.
Maria Eugenia Campos, the governor of Chihuahua state, which shares a vast border with Texas and New Mexico, said her top priority is to keep people from staying too long in Mexican border cities like Ciudad Juárez. said.
“Chihuahua cannot become a sanctuary state for immigrants and deportees,” he said.
Until this month, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said her country would not accept foreign deportees. On Friday, she showed that's not the case.
“We will ask the United States to send as many non-Mexican migrants to their countries of origin as possible. If not, we can work together through other mechanisms,” he told reporters. Her government had a “plan” but did not provide details.
Have the factors driving migration changed?
not much.
About 392,000 Mexicans were displaced as a result of conflict and violence in 2023, according to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Center, which compiles federal data. This is the highest number since records began in 2009.
The situation is similar in Central America. In some countries, many people are on the run due to criminal organizations and drug cartels.
More than 240,000 people will be internally displaced in Honduras by the end of 2022 due to insecurity, according to a recent report from the International Organization for Migration.
In Guatemala, the factors that drive people out, including inequality, poverty, climate change, economic instability and violence, have not improved much despite the election of anti-corruption activist Bernardo Arévalo as the country's new president. said researcher Aracely Martinez. Del Valle, Guatemala City.
“We have a new government and its camp has proposed fundamental changes, but we have not yet seen any direct results,” she said.
Still, the number of Guatemalans recorded at the U.S.-Mexico border fell from more than 20,000 in January 2024, when Arevalo took office, to nearly 8,000 in November, according to U.S. Border Patrol data. .
What happens in other places?
Venezuela and Cuba, facing tough US sanctions, are likely to refuse mass deportation flights.
Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador signed refugee agreements with the first Trump administration that required asylum seekers, primarily from Central and South America, to first seek refuge in these three countries before applying to the United States. This policy was not implemented in Honduras. And El Salvador.
The most concrete pushback against Mr. Trump's promise of mass deportations came from President Xiomara Castro of Honduras, who said this month that if he followed through on his promise, he would “understand the reason for the existence of U.S. military bases in the country.” You will lose everything.”
Guatemala has denied as “false” reports that government authorities are willing to accept deported foreigners.
In December, Panama reported 4,849 people migrating through the dangerous Darien Canyon, a stretch of jungle that is a popular migration route, the lowest number in more than two years. Some experts see this as a sign of restrictive efforts by the Panamanian government, with migrants likely delaying their plans until after Trump's election. An undocumented migration is enabled.
“We cannot claim victory, but at the moment we are controlling the flow of migrants – the numbers show that -” Panama's Foreign Minister Javier Martínez Acha said in an interview.
In El Salvador, Mr. Trump may find an ally in President Nayib Boucle, a close member of the president-elect's inner circle.
Bukele's government has not publicly spoken about mass deportations. Asked about specific preparations for mass deportations, the operator of one of the call centers set up by El Salvador to provide information to Salvadorans living in the United States said, “We can't get ahead of the curve.”
Jody Garcia Contributed reporting from Guatemala City. gabriel labrador I'm from San Salvador, mary trinny there Born in Panama City.
