February 28th was one of Ukraine's darkest days since the Russian invasion three years ago. President Voldeemee Zelensky's oval office visit, which turned into a televised cry, urged Trump to banish guests from the White House without giving him a planned lunch, turned into a television cry.
Trump was already a deep skeptic of US support for Ukraine. However, after a disastrous meeting with Zelensky, he drafted a peace plan to accelerate his diplomacy with Russian President Vladimir V. Putin and end the war in Ukraine that offered great concessions to Moscow. Ukrainian supporters were in panic.
But there is new hope in Kyiv.
A day after the Trump administration announced its economic contract with Ukraine, analysts say the country's outlook looks brighter than it would have been in months.
“These are very good signs that something may be changing,” said Alina Polikova, president and CEO of the European Centre for Policy Analysis.
The Trump administration's “appears to have a change from its previous approach,” she said, calling the mineral trade that Ukraine “very wisely” negotiated “a win-win for both sides.”
Trump and Zelensky also appeared to be holding a friendly meeting at the Vatican on Saturday.
However, analysts warned that they portrayed solid conclusions about Trump's intentions towards Ukraine. The president's zigzag approach is confused as observers change between tactics and reverse the responsibility for the shift from one side to the other and again.
In addition to the confusion, there is a difference in the correct approach between Trump's aides and advisors. Steve Witkoff, who met with Trump's special envoy, Putin four times, is sympathetic to the points of the Kremlin story, and sometimes speaks in close harmony. In contrast, Secretary of State Marco Rubio was Putin's vocal critic and struck a more skeptical tone during his time in the Senate.
The chaotic approach highlights the stupidity of Trump's claims as a candidate last year, which could somehow resolve the conflict in just 24 hours. This week he took office for 100 days without showing his lasting efforts, even in a temporary ceasefire. This is an obvious subject of inspiration for Trump.
“Presidents tend to want to get results quickly, and this has been a very frustrating process,” Polikova said.
At this point, Trump's frustration appears to have shifted from Zelensky to Putin.
The Russian leader welcomes Trump's diplomacy and talks about the transformed relationship between the US and Russia. But Putin limped his leg over the issue of ending the war he began. Many analysts believe Putin has an advantage in the conflict and there is little incentive to end the fight without more concessions than Trump offered to him.
Putin may have also taken the bank to Trump's long and in many ways what he wants.
But Putin may be testing the limits of his strategy. In recent weeks, Trump has levelled sharp criticism of Russian leaders. “Vladimir, stop it!” Trump wrote on social media last week after a particularly deadly Russian missile attack on Kiev. “Let's end the peace deal!”
Now, Trump faces a key decision point that will help him determine Ukraine's fate. His choices are particularly difficult, according to analysts. This is because Trump's desire for quick peace is due to the tension between his innate distrust of Zelensky and his praise for Putin.
The first big choice Trump faces is whether he challenges Putin. The Russian leader's demands for a peace deal include things that Zelensky never sold to his people, including the recognition of Russian control over the five occupied Ukrainian regions and the end of Western military support for Ukraine. Trump has shown great concessions to Putin, including recognizing Russia's rule over the Crimea Peninsula, which Moscow forced to annex, in 2014, but has shown that Putin is asking for too much.
After another Russian missile barrage of death into the Russian civilian region, Trump wrote on Putin's social media on Saturday, “Maybe he doesn't want to stop the war, he just taps me and has to deal with it in a different way.”
Trump threatened to increase US economic pressure on Russia, including introducing “secondary” sanctions that would be punished by countries that trade with Moscow. (The goal could include China and India, which have increased Russian oil purchases in recent years.)
“The Ukrainian Ambassador is a major factor in the U.S. and the U.K. ambassador to the U.K. from 2006 to 2009,” said William B. Taylor Jr.
Trump may not be “star stock” by Russian leaders than he had in his first term, Taylor said.
“I think Trump is in a stronger position against Putin than he had his first term. Putin has declined,” Taylor said. He added: “He's now a Chinese junior partner. His economy is in very bad condition.” (Taylor served as a senior US diplomat in Kiev during Trump's first term.)
Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, a close Trump ally in Congress, says he has a veto majority soon on bills that impose new sanctions on Russia and tariffs on consumers of its energy resources.
When Putin loses his favor, it appears that Zelensky has piloted himself from the kennel.
One Ukrainian expert added that European leaders, including British Prime Minister Kiel Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron, have served as “marriage counselors” between Trump and Zelensky.
Progress was seen at an improvised private meeting last weekend at the Vatican, who was bystanders at Pope Francis' funeral. Meanwhile, they sat on a marble rotunda almost from knee to knee.
Neither did release details of their chats, but both sides portrayed the 15-minute session as positive, with Ukrainians being supported by watching Trump denounce Russia's latest attacks soon after.
Analysts also said Zelensky successfully negotiated a mineral trade that was far better than the mineral contract he originally presented to his government in February.
Zelensky's government hopes that by responding to Trump's strong profit motives, the mineral trade will give a new interest in the survival of Ukraine.
Ukraine's interests on that agreement could well portend peace negotiations, said Natalya Shapoval, head of the KSE Institute, a well-known Kiev think tank. “The rules for the Trump team's match proved Ukraine worthy of negotiation,” she said.
Still, many Ukrainian supporters are easing their hopes. Trump has long sought Putin's favor, making public excuses for his military attacks and even rejecting widespread accusations that Putin was conspiring to corruption, murder and war crimes.
If he is embarrassed to stand up to Russia's leadership, then Trump will make another big decision. Vice President JD Vance recently warned that the US might “walking” if peace talks don't progress anytime soon, and Trump may say in mid-April that “we're just going to take the pass.”
It is unclear what that means. In Ukraine's worst-case scenario, Trump declared the end of US aid for Kiev and gave Putin the green light to escalate his attack.
But it presents Trump with the risk of “losing” Ukraine in a bloody, chaotic military disaster that could force Trump to warn the chaos of the 2021 US exit from Afghanistan, which humiliates the public.
