Rose Garden Tariff
The global market is almost lower than President Trump's major tariff rollout today, but it's not a turmoil that has shook stocks in recent weeks.
The S&P 500 future is in red and stable as economists warn that Trump's protectionist policies could denounce growth and cause a global trade war that raises prices.
Business leaders and policymakers are at Tenterhook on what the president may introduce this afternoon. As of yesterday, Trump's teams were still debating what mutual tariffs would look like, Bloomberg reported.
Big question: Do they include flat blanket fees? For example, is it 20% obligation? Taxation is adjusted by country, and do people who run the biggest trade surplus against the US see the biggest hit? Or is it a layered system where the target is placed in a bad or worse category?
In addition to the confusion, the White House says that tariffs were open to the president's negotiations, not only being enacted immediately.
Uncertainty forced companies to scramble. Mercedes is weighing out whether to draw a few cheaper models, such as the GLA Sport Utility vehicles in the US market, as a round scheduled to take effect tomorrow. And Sandoz, the European Pharma giant, warns that the trade war could reduce medical costs and crimpify drug availability.
“I don't believe in most investors. Frankly, most Americans fully appreciate how these tariffs translate into higher inflation, lower growth and lower corporate profits,” Lazard market strategist Ron Temple told Politico.
Geopolitical interests are high. David Sanger of the Times reports that leaving trading partners in the darkness has already exacerbated frayed relationships with their allies. And while the threat of tariffs urged China to strengthen trade ties between Japan and South Korea, Seoul reduced the importance of those talks, and Tokyo completely denied them. The European Union still wants to sign a deal, but there are nuclear options just in case. (Details below.)
See how Trump treats Mexico. Mexico has grown dramatically in trade relations with China in recent years, with a massive trade surplus growing separately with the US, while Brazil has emerged as an early winner in tariff turmoil.
This is what's going on
Law firm Willkie Farr & Gallagher has signed a contract with President Trump. Willkie, a partner, including Kamala Harris' husband Doug Emhoff, has pledged $100 million in $100 million legal work on the causes Trump supports, the president wrote about the true society. He added that it “does not engage in illegal DEI discrimination and preferences.” The company is the latest to reach an agreement with Trump when he runs a retaliation campaign, but those struck by the deal often face criticism.
Prosecutors seek the death penalty for Luigi Mangion. Attorney General Pam Bondy said he oversaw a representation of the U.S. attorney for Manhattan. He oversees the lawsuit against Mangion, oversees the murder of United Healthcare CEO and pursues the death penalty. Mangion's lawyer, Karen Friedman Agnifilo, said seeking the death penalty is equivalent to “state-sponsored murders” aimed at protecting the “immoral” healthcare industry.
The Trump administration will suspend dozens of federal grants to Princeton. The university, which has lost funding from the Department of Defense, the Energy Agency and NASA, is the fourth Ivy League agency under reduced or threat to federal financial aid. The administration has not commented on why Princeton was targeted, but the school was one of 60 people and received a letter informing them of how they would protect Jewish students.
Visa is said to have provided $100 million to run Apple cards. According to the Wall Street Journal, as Visa and American Express are trying to drive Mastercard out of their role in managing popular credit cards, a huge payment network proposal has been proposed when Visa and American Express try to drive Mastercard away. Banks, including JPMorgan Chase and Synchrony Financial, are also fighting to ensure that card issuers Goldman Sachs are trying to withdraw consumer loans.
“Big Bazooka”
For weeks, European leaders have turned to Brussels to protect the European Union's economic interests in the brewing trade battle with Washington. With President Trump's mutual tariffs looming today and deals unseen, Bullock is beginning to have the worst, reports Bernhard Warner.
“We have the largest single market in the world,” European Commission Chairman Ursula von der Leyen said in a speech to the European Parliament yesterday. “We have the power to negotiate, we have the power to push back,” she says, “All instruments are on the table.”
What are those instruments? Trump has already announced tariffs on aluminum, steel, automobiles and auto parts, making moves that could seriously hinder the Bloc's volatile economy. Brussels responded by announcing it would reimpose customs duties on Harley-Davidson motorcycles, whiskeys and other products. Some of them were targeted during the transatlantic clash Trump, instigated in his first term.
Brussels has even bigger toolsyou can use it Chasing Big Technology and Wall Street. DealBook has acquired one spare plan that has been in circulation in Europe in recent weeks. Includes nuclear options. Restricting US banks' access to the large EU public procurement market means partially cutting banks from projects worth around 2 trillion euros ($2.2 trillion) per year.
Another idea in this plan is to target the large amounts of money European investors put into American companies each year. This is an annual flow of around 300 billion euros, which has been a stimulating point for EU officials.
The document did not clarify the scope, It goes without saying how these proposals will be introduced. But it showed how broadly policymakers think because the block is the weight of its approach.
Brussels is able to enact such harsh trade measures through what is known as the anti-course instrument. This is a trade policy tool adopted to be attacked by China two years ago. It has never been used before, but is considered the last resort option in case the conversation with Trump goes south.
“It's called the Big Bazooka.” Fabrizio Pagani, a partner at investment bank Vitale and former top economic officer of the Italian government, told Dealbook. “Personally, I think the big bazooka should be used as a deterrent first, so let's put it on the table and negotiate,” said Olof Gill, a spokesman for the European Commission, who said the anti-forced goods instruments are believed to be Brussels plotting the negotiation strategy.
Some people worry that such hardline negotiations could backfire. “Like tariffs on goods, tariffs on services have hit consumers and businesses directly,” Joachim Klemen, the strategy director at investment bank Panmur Liberam, added that it will be a surefire way to escalate the trade war.
“You're just fueling the bull's fire,” he added.
What's next for Tiktok?
Today could be a big day for the race where Tiktok changes ownership before the Saturday deadline.
Still, there are big questions left, such as whether the Chinese owners, White House and Byte Dance, can appease both the Beijing and China Hawks in the US, and what is there for potential blue-chip investors in Tiktok, where Tiktok emerged.
What we know: The most likely option is a transaction in which existing US investors roll beyond their interests into a new, independent tiktok. Additional US investors like Blackstone come to reduce ownership of Chinese investors.
Venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz is also taking part in the mix, according to the Financial Times. And the dealbook hears others are turning.
Tiktok remains a tricky bet. It's a huge social media application. However, the investment Blackstone makes is extremely tiny compared to the regular megadeals of private equity giants. Investing in a company means being forced into a regulatory spotlight that shines on most social media apps.
It also means joining a company that is in the midst of a geopolitical tug of war. For years, some U.S. investors in Bytedan, such as General Atlantic, have not been able to monetize their investments in a critical way.
Incentives may be more than finance. Part of Wall Street compares the consortium investing in Tiktok to Trump's first fund. It's a money pool that will earn you a great favor with the president.
Of course, some of the big names that circumnavigate the app, like Steve Schwartzman of Blackstone and Mark Andreesen Horowitz's, have already had close ties with Trump. Others like Oracle may benefit from placing bets on companies that already have commercial relationships.
Musk referendum
Last night, Wisconsin voters hit President Trump and Elon Musk in major tests, how far the world's wealthiest man, and often X's loudest voice.
But Trump won two special congressional elections in Florida, continuing to hold back Republicans' power in the House.
latest: Susan Crawford, a liberal candidate for the Wisconsin Supreme Court seat, defeated Brad Simel, a judge backed by Trump and Musk. This race was the most expensive judicial election in American history.
Crawford's victory maintains a liberal majority of the courts, 4-3, which is expected to determine pivotal cases relating to abortion, rights of labor and potentially Congressional districts.
Musk spent a lot of time in the race. He and the organisation linked to him spent $25 million to support Shimmel, and Musk gave to the state Republican Party. Musk also provided $100 each to sign a petition against the “activist judge.”
The election has arrived About Musk. Over the weekend, Musk spoke at a rally in Green Bay where he was wearing a cheese hat and gave a huge million-dollar check to the winner of the sweepstakes he said for those who signed his position. He acted like a candidate.
But the movement may have backfired. Democrats seized There is a huge spend on the message that Musk's message will strengthen his own fundraising efforts. Last month's Marquette Law School poll showed that masks are hated by the majority of registered voters in Wisconsin.
The results could have broader meaning. Musk is trying to position himself as a kind of central bank for Maga Republicans. And he cast the results from last night as a partial victory when voters approved Musk-backed efforts to introduce the state voter ID rules into the constitution.
The big question after last night: is his political influence beginning to fade, or was this just a blip?
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In other Musk news, Tesla is set to release first quarter sales, with analysts predicting a sharp decline amid increasing public backlash against Musk and his politics.
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transaction
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Rahm Emmanuel, a former Obama administration official and US ambassador for Japan under President Biden, has rejoined the investment bank's Centerview partner. (semafor)
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Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick reportedly met both Nippon Steel and Hedge Fund Ancola about potential deals in US steel. (Bloomberg)
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“Elon Musk's Megadeal between X and Xai breaks the Wall Street rulebook” (WSJ)
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