The F-35, a five-generation fighter, was developed in cooperation with eight countries and is a model for international cooperation. When President Trump introduced his successor, the F-47, he praised its strengths, saying that the version sold to allies would be deliberately downgraded.
That makes sense, Trump said last week, “Because one day, they're not our ally.”
In many countries married to the US, his statements confirmed relevant conclusions. That means America is no longer reliable. As Trump threatens the economy of its allies, their defense partnerships, and even sovereignty, we can see where things are heading, even in countries that are not yet directly affected.
For now, they are negotiating to minimize the pain caused by the blow after the blow, including the broad tariff expected in April. But at the same time, they are pulling back. To prepare for threats, they are trying to walk their own paths to become a lasting feature of American relations.
Some examples:
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Canada announced this month that it is in talks to make a $4.2 billion deal with Australia, develop cutting-edge radar and participate in the European Union's military accumulation.
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Portugal and other NATO countries are reconsidering plans to buy the F-35, fearing US control over parts and software.
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Negotiations over free trade and technology transactions between the European Union and India suddenly accelerated after years of delay.
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Not only is Brazil increasing its trade with China, it is doing it with Chinese currency, and it stands by the dollar.
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Several allies, including Poland, South Korea and Australia, are debating whether to build or secure access to nuclear weapons to protect them.
Some distance from the US was already moving, as other countries were wealthy, more capable, and we weren't convinced that America's centrality was permanent. However, the past few months of Trump 2.0 have supercharged the process.
History and psychology can help explain why. According to social scientists studying international relations, there is little power to have a very strong and long-term impact on geopolitics like mistrust. He repeatedly poisoned negotiations in the Palestine-Israel conflict. It maintained Cold War tensions between the US and the Soviet Union for decades.
So-called realists who view international relations as an immoral contest between self-interested nations argue that trust should always be evaluated skeptical as it is dangerous to believe in goodwill.
But Trump has raised more than cautious doubt. His own distrust of the Allies is revealed in his Zerosum's belief that the profits for others are American losses, and he goes back and forth. What it was created is familiar – the spiral of mistrust. If you think other people (or countries) can't trust you, you are more likely to break rules and contracts without shame, and research will strengthen the distrust of the partners themselves, leading to more aggression and reduced interactions.
“Trust is vulnerable,” writes Paul Slovich, a psychologist at the University of Oregon, in his inventive study of risk, trust and democracy. “It's usually created quite slowly, but it can quickly be destroyed by one accident or mistake.”
In Trump's case, allies point to a sustained attack.
His tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada surprised American neighbors, ignoring the North American free trade contracts he signed during his first term.
His threat to make Canada an American state and send US troops to Mexico after drug cartels destroy invasions on sovereignty, unlike his demands for Greenland and the Panama Canal. His responsibility for the war that Russia began to alienate even more of its alienated allies forces them to ask: is the United States dictator or advocate for democracy?
Relatively quickly, they decided that Trump's most audacious proposals (such as turning Gaza into the Middle Eastern Riviera) were fantasies. The trend line is pointed in the same direction.
Perhaps no country has been more shocked than Canada. Despite the large military power and disparities, it shares the world's largest, unprotected border with the United States. why? Because Canadians trust America. Most of the time isn't.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Thursday that his country's traditional ties with the United States are “end.”
“Trump violates deeper assumptions in Canada's foreign policy that the United States is essentially a reliable country,” said Brian Rasbun, professor of Global Affairs at the University of Toronto. “It's very threatened by Canada's fundamental interests on trade and security, leading to casting it for an alternative.”
Economic patriotism is somewhat new to Canada, but it has created a Canadian movement to encourage consumers to avoid American products and stocks. Canadians are also canceling a large number of US holidays.
In the long run, Trump's threat has built a surprising consensus on policies that have been controversial or neglected. Canada needs to build pipelines, ports, ports and other infrastructure from north to south to reduce its dependence on the US and push resources outwards to Asia and Europe.
Europe is further ahead in this process. After the US election, the European Union has secured trade contracts with South American countries to create one of the world's largest trade spheres, working towards close trade ties with India, South Africa, South Korea and Mexico.
Japan, America's biggest ally in Asia, is also prioritized by new markets in the global southern region, where a rapidly growing economy like Vietnam offers new customers.
“There was a new realization in Japan that we definitely need to change our investment portfolio,” said Ken Jimbo of Tokyo, a professor of international politics and safety at Kio University in Tokyo. For the current administration and subsequent administrations, he added that “expectations for the American Alliance must be adjusted.”
Defensively, what is called “de-Americanization” is even more difficult. This is especially true in Asia where there is no NATO equivalent, with American reliance on aid inventing some of the military forces of the nations that the US has committed to defending (Japan, South Korea, the Philippines).
Defense Secretary Pete Hegses was in Manila on Friday and promised to “really prioritize and shift the area.” However, many of our American partners are currently working together without the US, signing mutual access agreements for each other's forces and creating new coalitions to block China as much as possible.
Europe has also been separated for years from being able to be completely protected without the help of American weapons and technology. However, in response to the Trump administration's tariffs, threats and general disappointment, the European Union recently announced plans to increase military spending. This includes a 150 billion euro loan programme to fund defence investments.
The 27-national European Union is also increasingly working with two non-members, the UK and Norway, on Ukraine's defense and other strategic defense priorities.
In some countries, this is not enough. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tass told Parliament in early March that Poland would explore gaining access to nuclear weapons.
“This is a competition for security,” Tass said.
In February, South Korea's foreign minister Cho Yul told the National Assembly that the construction of nuclear weapons “is not on the table, but it doesn't necessarily mean that it's off the table.” Some estimates show that both South Korea and Japan have the technical know-how to develop nuclear weapons within two months.
Former Singapore diplomat Birihari Kausikan said a bit of distrust could lead to healthy attention, noting that Asia has been skeptical of the United States since the Vietnam War. He said the final result of the Trump era was “a more diverse world, with more maneuvering space” and could be a less dominant US.
But for now, distrust is widespread. Experts said that connecting America with new or old over the long term takes years and costly and trust-raising efforts.
“Crediting is difficult and easy to lose,” said Deborah Welch Larson, a political scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles, who wrote a book about the role of the Mistrust in the Cold War. She added: “Daily mistrust of America's intentions and motivations is growing.”
Report contributed Matina Stevis-Gridneff From Toronto, Jeanna Smialek From Brussels Cho San-han From Seoul Martin Fuckler From Tokyo.
