North Carolina has been reliably Republican in presidential elections, with the exception of a narrow 2008 victory for Barack Obama, but analysts say the state could influence President Biden for a variety of reasons. I think that's possible, and that the electoral calculus could change dramatically. . But achieving that will require Biden to win big in Democratic outposts like Northampton County and black voters, as polls show his economic response continues to worsen. It is necessary to stop the influx of people into the ranks of the Republican Party.
For example, Biden won this county in 2020 by a 20-point margin, but former President Donald Trump actually improved his performance in this county by 5 percentage points compared to 2016. There are signs that Biden could continue to improve that lead in 2024, especially as voters continue to support him. I don't think about economics.
In the town of Gaston, one stoplight away, James Wilkins sat sideways in a dilapidated truck parked outside a gas station convenience store. The 74-year-old black man says he's willing to vote for Trump.
“He's not at all a bad person like some people say. He wasn't that bad as president either,” Wilkins said. “[Joe] Biden? It's time for him to go home. he is too old Everyone here knows that. ”
The majority of Northampton County's population is black. The average annual salary is $29,000. One in five people officially live in poverty. It's the countryside. The county seat of Jackson has a population of 513 people and its only sit-down restaurant is open only on Thursday nights. This is one of the counties that remains reliably Democratic, despite its declining population.
“Northampton County is a microcosm of eastern North Carolina, and African-Americans are probably the key to winning the whole state,” said Democratic Rep. GK Butters, who served as the county's representative for 18 years before retiring in 2022. Mr. Field said. Presidency. ”
That's one reason the Biden campaign is running TV ads in North Carolina featuring black farmers from other counties. The state Democratic Party plans to launch a bus tour through here later this month. Vice President Kamala Harris has visited the state four times this year, and Mr. Biden has visited the state three times, most recently this month.
The Trump campaign believes the county has good soil for continuing road access. President Trump had planned two visits to North Carolina since the beginning of this year. Local Republicans believe the House district that includes Northampton County is the only one in the state that can be flipped.
If North Carolina is indeed involved, which is a big assumption, it would rewrite the entire electoral strategy of both parties.
Until now, even the most casual observers of elections believe that the 2024 presidential election will be another close contest with six states determining the winner: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada. was.
Trump won in 2016 because he won every state except Nevada, which he narrowly lost. The reason Biden won in 2020 is because he won them all. Logically, we will see a similar pattern in 2024.
But in 2020, Trump won North Carolina by just 74,483 votes, giving him a margin of victory of 1.35 percentage points. A victory in the ninth-largest state, with 16 electoral votes, would be a major step forward for Biden.
“There are multiple paths to get to 270 electoral votes. And North Carolina is a big part of one of those paths for us. So we're opening as many doors as possible. We’re going to leave it at that,” Biden’s chief deputy campaign manager, Quentin Fawkes, said in an interview. “North Carolina is a very important place to us.”
Most Republicans are ignoring this story. According to RealClearPolitics, they point out that Trump has led in North Carolina by an average of 5.4 percentage points in every poll over the course of the year. Many believe that Democrats will eventually realize that they have no hope of winning here and will retreat from the state, just as they did in 2012, 2016 and 2020.
Trump campaign senior adviser Lynn Patton said she is working with the Republican National Committee to “create the most comprehensive coalition of advocacy efforts the Republican Party has ever established” for areas like Northampton County. He said that
“Our coalition's message to the Black community this election is simple: strong borders, safe neighborhoods, rising wages, quality jobs, school choice, and the return of our strongest economy in more than 60 years. Vote for Donald J. Trump if you want,” Patton said.
Patton cited specific reasons why he thinks black voters will be drawn to Trump: record low black employment, increased funding for historically black colleges and universities, and criminal justice reform legislation during Trump's presidency. was approved. According to the latest North Carolina poll conducted by Emerson College and The Hill newspaper, Biden's approval rating among Black voters in the state is just 62%, down 6 points from September.
But Paul Shoemaker, a longtime North Carolina Republican strategist who helped elect two U.S. senators in recent decades, put it flatly: “North Carolina is the most volatile of the swing states at this point, and people are starting to realize that.”
The state is rarely in this position. Since 1976, Republicans have won all but one presidential election here.
“If he loses North Carolina, it's inconceivable that Trump could win the presidency,” said Andy Taylor, a political science professor at North Carolina State University.
But there is reason to believe Biden is in a better position than he was four years ago.
First, Biden leveraged his campaign finance advantage. His campaign began local television advertising last August, established 11 field offices and plans to have 40 staff by the end of this month. Mr. Trump, on the other hand, has no local TV ads, no full-time campaign staff, and no office other than to coordinate with organizations already established by local Republicans.
Second, Trump will be running alongside problematic statewide candidates. According to polls, Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson, backed by President Trump, was easily defeated in the state due to increased attention to his anti-gay and anti-Semitic comments. There's also Michelle Morrow, the Republican candidate who runs North Carolina's public schools. She made national news by calling for the execution of prominent Democrats like Biden and Obama, arguing they should be killed on pay-per-view.
Third, the state's massive demographic changes are benefiting Democrats. The areas around Raleigh, Charlotte, and Wilmington are some of the fastest growing areas in the country and are home to young, educated voters who are less sympathetic to the MAGA movement. And the relocation of Republicans to fast-growing suburbs has helped former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley do better here than in most other areas in the Republican primary as her campaign enters its final stages. This is the reason why it received 23% of the votes.
“When you look at the demographic changes, Democrats have a lot of illusions about North Carolina in the medium to long term,” North Carolina's Taylor said. “But in the short term, especially with Trump and Robinson voting together, there's really a reason for them to try some things and see how this situation goes.”
James Pindell can be reached at james.pindell@globe.com.follow him @jamespindell Also on Instagram @jameswpindell.