A thunderous explosion shook the ground as the Ukrainian crew prepared to get the American-made Bradley fighting vehicle out of its camouflage and into the fire again.
The team's commander, a sergeant with the call sign of a lawyer, looked nervously at the sky. “If we are seen, the KAB will come,” he said, referring to the one-ton bombs that Russia is using to target Ukraine's most valuable armor and defenses.
What began as a small Russian invasion of the small town of Ocheretine grew into a substantial breakthrough that threatened to collapse a wide swath of Ukrainian military lines on the Eastern Front. The crew's mission was to contain the breach. The mission was to protect the outnumbered and outgunned infantry, evacuate the wounded, and use Bradley's powerful 25mm guns against as many Russians as possible.
However, the 28-ton vehicle was quickly located. Mortars and rockets exploded in the surrounding area, seriously injuring the gunner, said the commander, identified only by his call sign in accordance with military protocol.
Combat missions turned into missions to rescue allies. The gunner survived and is now recovering, his lawyer said days later. However, Russia continues to gain territory and advance.
Ukrainian soldiers and commanders from various brigades interviewed in recent weeks said Ukraine has become more vulnerable than ever since the first brutal weeks of the 2022 invasion. Russia is trying to take advantage of this opportunity, stepping up attacks across the east and currently threatening to open a new front by attacking Ukrainian military positions along the northern border outside the city of Kharkiv.
Months of delays in U.S. aid, soaring casualties and severe ammunition shortages are taking a toll, evident in the weary faces and weary voices of soldiers engaged in daily combat. .
“Frankly, I'm worried,” said Lieutenant Colonel Oleksandr Voloshin, 57, a veteran tank battalion commander with the 59th Motor Brigade. “Because without the shells, without the soldiers, without the equipment for my men to fight…” he said, trailing off. “that's it.”
The sudden Russian advance through Oceretine, about nine miles northwest of Avdiivka, in late April shows that even a small crack in the front can have cascading effects. Platoons already deployed are at risk of being outflanked and surrounded, as other units scramble to block the line. violation.
“It's like a car experiencing engine knock and then continuing to drive,” said Lieutenant Oleksandr Shirsin, 29, deputy battalion commander of the 47th Mechanized Brigade. “The car will run, but at some point it will stop. Then you'll spend more resources trying to restore it.”
“Here as well, there are mistakes that I don't think are significant,” he says. “But because of them now we need to stabilize the situation. And where that stabilization will occur is uncertain.”
“Any unanticipated event can change the situation,” said Lt. Sirsin. “And this is what happened in Oceretine.”
ripple effect
After Avdiivka fell to Russian forces in February, the small town of Ochertyn became a Ukrainian military stronghold on the main road. Most of the 3,000 residents were evacuated. Abandoned high-rise apartment complexes and other urban infrastructure provided excellent defensive positions, and the situation remained relatively stable for two months.
But then something went wrong.
In late April, Russians suddenly appeared on the desolate streets around Ivan Vyvsyanik's home, and at first glance, he mistook them for Ukrainian soldiers. When they asked him for his passport, the 88-year-old knew that Oceletine's defenses had collapsed.
“I thought our soldiers would come and defeat them,” he said in an interview after making the harrowing walk across the front line to escape. “But that didn't happen.”
Three weeks later, what started as a small Russian advance has grown into a roughly 15-square-mile upheaval, complicating defenses in the Donetsk region.
Extending this bulge further north could give Russian forces a chance to bypass some of the strongest fortifications in eastern Ukraine, which they have long defended. Russia could now take up a new line of attack, targeting the town of Konstiantynivka, which is a key logistics hub for the Ukrainian military.
The Kremlin's efforts to advance from one ruined village to the next were captured in hours of combat footage shared by front-line Ukrainian brigades.
Russian infantry charges on foot through mine-strewn fields and uses dirt bikes and dune buggies to try to outrun exploding Ukrainian drones. They attack in armored columns of varying sizes, and large attacks are often led by tanks covered in giant metal huts and equipped with advanced electronic warfare equipment to protect against drones. You can Western observers call them “turtle tanks.” Ukrainians call them “wondervakhria”. It is a combination of the German word for wonder and the Ukrainian word for waffle.
“We are allowing their infantry to approach us, which results in closer contact and a direct firefight,” said Lt. Sirsin. “So our losses are increasing.”
The Russians also pay a staggering price for each advance. Approximately 899 Russian soldiers were killed or wounded per day in April. british military intelligence Recently reported.
Despite committing so many soldiers to the battle, Russian forces captured only about 30 square miles of territory in April. According to military analysts. And capturing urban centers like Kramatorsk and Pokrovsk, Ukraine's last fortified cities in the Donbas, will almost certainly involve long and bloody battles.
Still, Russia's advances into the east and northeast in recent weeks have begun to dangerously change the shape of the front.
frayed lines
“Look at the map, where we are and where Ocheletine is,” said tank battalion commander Colonel Voloshin. He studied the terrain as he prepared to depart on a mission to target a house where 20 Russians were believed to be hiding. “Now we can assume that they can easily bypass us from the left or right. They are tactically successful, have equipment, personnel and shells. So we can expect everything It is.”
The lack of dramatic changes on the front for more than a year has obscured the exhaustive battle for position needed to maintain that precarious balance. In a war where battles over a single tree line can last for weeks, the sudden entry of Russian forces into the area around Okerytne is the most dangerous type of problem, and it is a quick, deep, and surprising attack. It was something.
There is intense debate as to who is responsible for not being able to hold the line there.
The Deep State Telegram channel, which has close ties to the Ukrainian military, accused the 115th Mechanized Brigade of leaving key positions without orders, allowing Russian troops to invade and raid settlements.
The brigade vehemently denied that it was outnumbered by 15 to 1 soldiers and held out as long as possible under the numbing artillery fire.
“We would like to emphasize that regular troops of the 115th Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have not left their positions or fled,” the brigade said. A special military commission was set up to find out exactly what happened.
Soldiers familiar with the battle have been reluctant to publicly criticize neighboring brigades, saying a number of issues, from poor communication to severely outnumbered troops, were all likely at play.
Lieutenant Sirsin of the 47th Division, which was located next to the 115th Division, did not speculate on what went wrong, but said the results were immediate. It quickly became clear that if the 47th Division did not retreat, it would be surrounded and risk catastrophic losses.
“Russian forces took advantage of this opportunity and penetrated behind the Ukrainian forces, sensing weaknesses in that direction,” he said. “Then we lost Oceletine, then Novakmutivka, then Soloviove.”
The lieutenant said that the Ukrainian High Command does not like to surrender any territory, adding: “It is very difficult to argue with them and explain why it is not good to maintain this position.”
Lieutenant Sirsin hoped that the situation would improve with the arrival of Western weapons, but said that until then, “we will continue to die and lose territory.”
“The question is whether it's slow and defensible,” he said. “Or fast and pointless.”
Lyubov Sholdko He contributed a report from eastern Ukraine. Anastasia Kuznietswa and Natalia Novosorova Contributed to research.