The dragons are back, and it's not too late.
On Sunday, “Game of Thrones” prequel series “House of the Dragon” returns to HBO for Season 2. The show became a bona fide hit in its first season in 2022, kicking off a torrid streak for the network that also included a popular sophomore season for “White Lotus,” the premiere of new hit “The Last of Us” and a spectacular final season of “Succession.”
But over the past year, HBO has experienced an unusual period of hiatus for a prominent American premium television network.
Last year saw disappointing releases, including the music drama “The Idol” and the Kate Winslet limited series “The Regime,” as well as delays caused by Hollywood’s double strike. Meanwhile, Max, the streaming service that launched 13 months before the HBO shows, has stagnated, according to a widely used industry metric. An executive at HBO parent Warner Bros. Discovery described Max’s slow start as “probably the lightest on content we’ve ever had.”
HBO's underperformance over the past year could be highlighted by next month's Emmy nominations, which would normally be cause for celebration for the network. But in contrast to past years, HBO and Max shows are unlikely to garner favor in several major categories, including the drama category, which HBO dominated at the recent Emmys.
Some awards prognosticators say HBO could finish third among networks in total nominations, its lowest ranking since 1996.
HBO executives acknowledged they expect fewer awards this year, but said they're looking beyond this weekend and into the months ahead.
“We feel really good about the next 18 months to two years with all the returning programming and new programming that's coming,” Casey Bloys, chairman of HBO and Max content, said in an interview.
In addition to “House of the Dragon,” Bloys cited several series debuting this year, including “The Penguins” starring Colin Farrell, a “Dune” prequel series and a new comedy from “Veep” creator Armando Iannucci. Two hits, “The White Lotus” and “The Last of Us,” are returning next year.
“If you look to the future, there's nothing completely unknown,” Bloys said.
Industry insiders have long looked for signs of HBO's slump, and given its outsized success over the past three decades, it has typically faced more scrutiny from viewers and critics than other networks.
Still, the slowdown comes at a precarious time for the entertainment industry: The lucrative cable-TV bundle is fading, being replaced by the fragile economics of streaming, the days of peak TV are over and Hollywood is in the midst of an industry-wide downsizing.
HBO's parent company faces all of these challenges and more: It's saddled with roughly $40 billion in debt and its stock price has fallen more than 30% this year.
When Warner Bros. Discovery was formed in 2022, the promise of Max, which would combine Warner Bros. movies and shows, including HBO, with Discovery's vast non-scripted content, was a big justification for the merger. The idea was that the combination would allow it to compete more directly with streaming giants like Netflix and Amazon Prime.
But engagement with Max, which will be renamed from HBO Max in 2023, has not grown. The service accounts for 1.2% of U.S. TV usage, the same as a year ago, according to Nielsen. Netflix's share is significantly higher (7.6%), and even mid-tier or lower-tier services like Tubi (1.7%), Roku Channel (1.4%) and Peacock (1.3%) now slightly outpace Max. But Warner Bros. Discovery said its streaming division is profitable, even though Peacock, for example, lost nearly $3 billion last year.
JB Perrette, president of global streaming at Warner Bros. Discovery, acknowledged at a conference earlier this year that the strike had led to a weakened lineup of shows and movies. “Our lineup for the second half of the year was much smaller than we had anticipated,” he said.
Bloys said the labor dispute has delayed many of the network's hit shows, including delays to “The White Lotus” and “The Last of Us.” It has also delayed “The Penguins,” a show Bloys said he feels “very strongly” about. Another “Game of Thrones” spinoff is due to premiere next year.
There have been some recent successes: The fourth season of “True Detective” premiered this year and, according to the network, averaged about 13 million viewers per episode, beating the final season of “Succession.” Max original series “Hucks” also just wrapped its critically acclaimed third season.
Still, “Hacks” will likely compete at the Emmys with recent best comedy winner, FX and Hulu series “The Bear.”
Netflix is widely expected to lead all networks in Emmy nominations this year, surpassing HBO for the first time in four years, and FX, which is a front-runner for the awards with “Shogun,” could be in a tight battle with HBO and Max for the second-most nominations. Voting for the Emmys begins Thursday, and nominations will be announced on July 17.
But the question of whether it can maintain high standards is all too familiar to HBO executives: Bloys said the network has endured “a number of trying times” in an industry that has clung to signs of weakness.
For example, rival executives called the network “over HB” shortly after “The Sopranos” ended in 2007. Similarly, the network faced mounting questions about its future when it lost its drama slate in 2015 and again when “Game of Thrones” ended its run in 2019.
HBO survived, to say the least.
Bloys argued that “this time is different” because in previous years, HBO didn't have any sure bets. This time, it does, he said.
“Things happen. Emmys come and go,” he said. “I think what's in our interest is staying focused on our show and making the best show we can.”