Germans voted on Sunday in a rare snap election that took on different importance as the new Trump administration threatens European countries with tariffs, cuts negotiations with Ukraine and embraces authoritarian Russia .
The election of parliament was called in November after three governments collapsed in November with Prime Minister Olaf Scholz's unpopularity I did. Seven months before schedule, the vote is now in the midst of a European struggle for strong leadership, as it recalibrates relations with the United States.
Despite efforts by politicians and countless volunteers to bring excitement to the race during their brief, dark winter campaign, the polls never changed. Friedrich Merz and his conservative Christian Democratic Union have a comfortable lead.
A solid alternative to Germany, or AFD, is expected to be second in riding on voters' complaints about mainstream parties and the fear of migration. Polls show that they are likely to hold the best show ever.
Scholz's Social Democrat, who won in 2021, is expected to be third just ahead of the Green. Germany's oldest party, the Social Democrats, may be ready for the worst exhibit since it was banned by the Nazis.
But there is a lot of uncertainty. There are a few things to note:
A company of two, a crowd of three
It is not expected to receive enough votes to govern completely on its own. The most important question is the number of parties involved that are necessary to form a government.
Together, Merz's central right Christian Democrats and far-right AFDs could have the widest majority. But because the AFD is contaminated by the Neo-Nazi Association, Mertz and all mainstream party leaders say they don't form a government with it. Instead, they join together in something called “firewalls,” which aims to protect extremists from power.
It leaves the Social Democrats, but they are on the centre left as Merz's most likely partner. If the two don't have enough support to form a majority, a third party will be required.
The experience of the incumbent government has shown how difficult and unstable the three-party group is. This is the result of many analysts saying they will almost return to Germany when the last three governments collapse.
Small King Maker
And then, it's very important, and therefore how well the smaller parties do, and whether they at least get the 5% support they need to enter Congress.
If the vote is correct, the little Die Linke party on the far left seems likely to make it. Polls show that one of the most popular members, Sahra Wagenknecht, is ready for a turnaround that appears to have been heading for extinction since last year, after it broke to form his own party It's been done.
The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, or BSW, is running for the first time at the national level, as the new party is called. The outlook is uncertain.
Another party hovering near the threshold is the free Democrats of professional business. Its leader, Christian Lindner, is the man who drove Prime Minister Skolts out of the government and sparked Sunday's election. For him, the vote will be a test of whether the gambit to save his party will be rewarded.
For all these parties, clearing barriers to entering Congress is an existential issue. Without Congress seats, they would be far less visible and access to much less money.
But if they all make it in Congress, it is likely to complicate the lives of larger parties, reduce their seats, and deny them the opportunity to consolidate two-party coalition.
Will the “firewall” be retained?
If AFD has a stronger display than expected (more than 20%), causing an unwieldy effort to avoid it, questions about how long a mainstream “firewall” can hold is strengthened. There is a high possibility that this will occur.
Even among European nationalists and anti-immigrant parties, the AFD is considered one of the more extremes. Some of the AFDs are closely monitored by the German national intelligence reporting agency and are labelled as extremists and potential threats to the constitution. Party members have been linked to conspiracy to mess with the resurrected Nazi slogans, disregard the horrors created by the Holocaust, and to overthrow the government.
However, the party has been accepted by Trump administration officials. At this month's security conference in Munich, Vice President JD Vance called on Germans to stop alienating far-right parties by saying “there is no room for a firewall,” and he said, and he was the Prime Minister, AFD candidate Alice Weidel. I met him.
Billionaire Trump adviser Elon Musk interviewed Weidel on his social media platform X, and confirmed her through video links before AFD supporters gathered at the rally, saying that Germans were “past guilts.” “There's too much focus on the feeling.”
The strength of the AFD show could prove pioneering not only in German politics, but also in political trends across Europe since Trump's election to second term.
And those support from Trump and Musk helped justify the party, giving it a broader appeal or potentially backfire given the German regime's new hostile relationship with Germany and Europe. It may be judged as a measure of whether or not it came out.
When do you know?
The first prediction will be made when the vote closes at 6pm on a Sunday in Germany (US noon EST). These numbers tend to be very accurate as they are based on large exit voting. In the last election, the exit poll was within 1% of the final vote posted hours later, once all votes were counted.
However, exit voting may be less predictable this year. An extraordinary number of voters have told pollers they haven't made up for their minds yet, and as more voters use email-in votes, they are keeping track of exit votes. Not there.
Most Germans are glued to the TV at the end of the vote. Expecting various party headquarters photos, everyone is huddled around the chief candidate (Champagne flute or Beerstein depending on the party) and awaits these first results.
