The Gaza ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas had not yet been ratified by the Israeli government as of Thursday, but the battle over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political future has already begun.
Hours after announcing the deal, Prime Minister Netanyahu faced an internal revolt from his far-right partners in the ruling coalition, whose support he relies on to stay in power.
National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir announced Thursday night that his ultranationalist Jewish Power Party would leave Mr. Netanyahu's coalition government if the cabinet approves a cease-fire agreement.
While the move itself did not prevent the Gaza agreement from moving forward, it threatened to destabilize the government at a critical time. A majority of ministers are in favor of the ceasefire agreement, and it is expected to be approved without a vote from Jewish Power and Religious Zionism, the other far-right party in the coalition. Religious Zionism, led by Israel's Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, also strongly opposes the deal.
Jewish power holds six seats in the 120-member parliament, and if the party resigns as promised, the government's parliamentary majority will be reduced from 68 to a razor-thin 62-seat majority. Mr Bengvir said the party would propose: He will return to government if the war with Hamas resumes.
Smotrich, whose party holds seven seats, has threatened to resign from power at a later stage if Netanyahu moves from the first phase of a six-week ceasefire to a permanent one.
Prime Minister Netanyahu may be forced to choose his fate in the politically volatile weeks ahead. Either he can renew the fight against Hamas in Gaza and maintain his parliamentary majority, or he can risk the coalition collapsing midway through his four-year term and gamble on early elections.
As President-elect Donald J. Trump prepares to take office on Monday after more than 15 months of devastating war, some analysts believe it would be better for Israeli leaders to end the Gaza conflict. It states that it is an option.
“An election is a story,” said Moshe Kraghaft, an Israeli strategic adviser and international political campaign manager who has advised Mr. Netanyahu in the past, adding that if an election occurs, Mr. Netanyahu's next story will be: He added that it would be. “War and Peace”.
The first phase of the deal begins on Sunday and is scheduled to last six weeks, during which Hamas is to release 33 Israeli hostages in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners and Israeli forces are to take control of Gaza. It will be redeployed to the east, away from populated areas. .
If carried out, the second phase, which would last another six weeks, would see the remaining hostages (some living and some dead) return home and Israeli forces withdraw completely from Gaza.
Families of the hostages implored Prime Minister Netanyahu to put politics aside and complete the cease-fire agreement. Trump has made it clear that he wants to end the war that began with the Hamas-led terrorist attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.
The first Trump administration mediated the normalization of diplomatic relations between Israel and three Arab countries. Israelis are now eyeing the possibility of a grander deal that could lead to formal relations with Saudi Arabia in the incoming Trump administration, a deal that would strengthen Israel's regional axis against its arch-enemy Iran.
Strategist Kraghaft said he believed it was “more likely that Prime Minister Netanyahu will choose the election with Saudi Arabia over Smotrich and continue the war.”
Ben Gvir and Smotrich want the war in Gaza to continue until Hamas is eliminated. Their hope is that the Israeli military will take control of the Palestinian enclaves and eventually clear the way for Jewish settlements.
Ben Gvir described the deal as Israel's “surrender” to Hamas and called on Smotrich in a video statement to help make up the numbers to block the deal by resigning from government together. . Neither has the power to overthrow the government on their own.
Ben Gvir had already proven to be an unreliable and troublesome coalition partner. The prime minister, who had called for higher pay for police, refused to support his government in passing a key bill last month, prompting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is recovering from prostate surgery, to stay away from his hospital bed to ensure the bill's passage. forced a vote in Congress. .
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has held frequent and lengthy talks with Smotrich in recent days in an effort to persuade him to remain in the coalition government. On Thursday, after a three-hour meeting between Smotrich and party lawmakers, the party issued an ultimatum to Prime Minister Netanyahu, demanding a commitment to immediately resume the war with Hamas as a condition of an initial six-week ceasefire. did. Mr. Smotrich will remain in government.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu postponed convening a cabinet meeting to ratify the deal, citing a last-minute standoff with Hamas over details.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is fighting corruption charges in a lengthy court case, and there is a risk that military and policy failures in preparation for the 2023 Hamas attack will be exposed to public judgment after the war ends. Given this situation, some analysts believe that if Hamas does not act first, he will choose to abandon the Phase 2 deal in order to preserve his coalition government.
“Prime Minister Netanyahu wants to stay in power,” said Geir Tarshiel, a political scientist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. “For him, it makes no sense to go to an election that he might not win. He wants to lead the government for two more years.”
Prime Minister Netanyahu was still able to reach an agreement with Smotrich. Even if the finance minister decides to leave the coalition along with Ben Gvir, Netanyahu could remain head of a minority government, at least for a while. Opposition leaders say they will provide Netanyahu with a political safety net for peace.
In any case, the government is likely to survive until the end of the first phase of the deal, said Yohanan Plesner, director of the Israel Democracy Institute, a nonpartisan research group in Jerusalem.
But Mr. Netanyahu may have to decide between his majority in Congress and his relationship with the next administration in Washington, and Mr. Trump and Saudi Arabia may be offering Mr. Netanyahu an opportunity to burnish his legacy. be.
“I think his mind is already on his next big move,'' Plesner said of Prime Minister Netanyahu, adding, “I think he has to choose between the Trump administration and his close relationship with Smotrich and Ben Gvir.'' If not, he will choose,” he added. For Trump. ”
American and Israeli officials said the deal reached this week is very similar to the proposal President Biden outlined last May.
Critics of Netanyahu's government, including many of the families of the 98 hostages still held by Hamas in Gaza, have long accused the prime minister of sabotaging previous efforts at a deal to preserve his coalition government. I've been criticizing.
Ben Gvir appeared to confirm the allegations in a video statement this week, claiming that he and Smotrich have used their political influence to block similar deals “on numerous occasions” over the past year. .
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his supporters have blamed Hamas for failing to reach agreements in the past.
Many Israelis and hostage families say they support a deal that would bring all hostages home. Among them were the parents of Hersh Goldberg Pollin, a dual American-Israeli citizen whose name was on the original list of hostages to be released in the first phase of last year's deal, but who was killed. Also included are a certain Rachel Goldberg Pollin and John Pollin. Last August, he was captured along with five other hostages in a tunnel in Gaza.
“It is essential that this process is completed and all 98 hostages returned to their families,” they said in a statement Thursday, welcoming the agreement. “It is also time for innocent civilians in Gaza to be relieved of the suffering they have endured.”
