The end of an era in France.
President Emmanuel Macron's seven-year rule of the country came to an end on Sunday when his party suffered a crushing defeat in the first round of parliamentary elections. The president not only called for an immediate vote and dissolved parliament, but also effectively dissolved the centrist movement known as “Macronism.”
The far-right Rally National party won a third of the vote, but that was no guarantee it would win an absolute majority in a runoff six days later — though it is likely to come close. But by calling the election, Macron risked everything and guaranteed that his party would end up winning less than a third of the seats it currently holds, leaving him marginalized.
“The decision to dissolve the National Assembly effectively puts an end to the political system that was formed in the 2017 presidential election,” said Edouard Philippe, one of Macron's former prime ministers.
In 2017, then 39, Macron came to power with a landslide victory, eradicating the center-right Gaullists and center-left Socialists that had been the pillars of postwar France in the name of a pragmatic, centrist, 21st-century realignment. The strategy worked for a while, but Macron's failure to build a credible moderate party left him with just one man to counter both extremes, left and right, and a shrinking circle of allies.
This position, which at times worked to Macron's advantage, has now collapsed in one of the most striking and self-defeating blunders in recent European politics.
Despite his National Rally's crushing defeat in the European Parliament elections, Macron did not call elections just weeks before the Paris Olympics. It speaks to France's desperate plight today that Macron's narrow victory is defined by Marine Le Pen's National Rally failing to win an absolute majority in the National Assembly, even if the price of that victory is uncontrollable chaos.
“It's over. They have no room to maneuver,” Luc Leuven, a senior research fellow at Sciences Po in Paris, said of Macron's centrist movement.
France, unlike Italy and Belgium, does not have a culture of living in limbo for long periods without an appointed government, but that possibility now looms.
If the Rally National wins an absolute majority, Mr Macron will almost certainly have to accept Le Pen's protégé, Jordan Bardella, 28, as prime minister as the party seeks to topple other leaders, but the two men's opposing views would make for an uncomfortable partnership.
If the National Rally does not get such a majority, Macron will face a very large far-right group and a large left-wing and far-left coalition in Parliament, all of whom are instinctively opposed to him. It is unclear how he would form a governing coalition. The only possibility would be some form of caretaker government led by technocrats until Parliament is dissolved again in a year and the Constitution allows it to be dissolved again.
According to France Info's analysis of the election results, the Rally National and its allies reached a runoff in more than 480 constituencies, of which they either came in first or were directly elected in 297. In contrast, Macron's centrist coalition stands to lose many of the 250 seats it has held since 2022, reaching a runoff in 319 constituencies, of which it came in first or was directly elected in just 69. A party needs 289 seats to have an absolute majority in Parliament.
Macron's Renaissance party has asked candidates in some constituencies where it came third in the first round to withdraw, in a bid to prevent the vote being split up and giving the far-right an absolute majority.
But in another sign of division, some moderates have been reluctant to do so in support of the left, citing disastrous economic plans and the rhetoric of far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon, whose fervent support for the Palestinian cause has more than once seemed to cross into anti-Semitism.
“Nobody chose this dissolution,” outgoing Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, once a favourite of Mr Macron, said firmly on Monday, “but we refuse to be its victims.”
Macron, who is term-limited and must step down in 2027, would remain president, but Bardella, if prime minister, would surely position himself as a bulwark of survival against far-right forces that view immigrants as second-class citizens.
But his powers on domestic policy will be limited and his voice on the international stage, traditionally the exclusive domain of the French president, will be curtailed, especially with regard to the European Union, where a national coalition of euroskeptics will do everything in their power to return power to the people from Brussels. Macron has been an ardent supporter of what he calls “European power.”
Strikingly, both Le Pen and Bardella chose to deliver their victory speeches on Sunday against a backdrop of the French flag, rather than the blue and gold European Union flag that flies over all French city halls and government buildings, including the prime minister's residence, Hôtel Matignon, and the presidential palace, the Élysée Palace. The message that international priorities are shifting was clear.
So why did Macron call the elections?
Macron clearly miscalculated, thinking that a split in the left, especially between moderate Socialists and Mélenchon's “Straightforward France,” would increase the chances of his party making it to the runoff. But that didn't happen. Instead, the left-wing coalition, the New Popular Front, won 27.99% of the vote to Macron's 20.04%, securing the right to go to even more runoffs.
The second miscalculation was that Mr Macron believed he could still be a symbol of unity, despite the steady rise in hostility he faced during his seven years in office. He wanted to stand against the extremes and represent the republic and its values. That was acceptable to too few voters.
Instead, they seem to have felt alienated by his aloofness and highly personal rule, epitomized by his shock decision to call elections. The long-standing taboo against national assemblies no longer made sense.
“It's a personal rejection,” said political scientist Jacques Rupnik. “People no longer want Macron to unite.”
If true, this would be a major blow to Mr. Macron, a highly intelligent man with a ready wink and charm, who has always thought he could persuade anyone, from Russian President Vladimir V. Putin to former U.S. President Donald J. Trump, to agree with his views. It hasn't always worked, but his bold determination to break down political barriers has never wavered.
He spoke to Putin for months after the Ukraine war broke out in 2022, something almost no one in the West did. This year he did not rule out sending Western troops on the ground to Ukraine, but nearly everyone, led by President Biden, rejected the idea. He declared that Europe faced “death” if it did not begin to disentangle itself from the United States, while many other European countries thought distancing between allies would sound the death knell. Finally, on the advice of only a few cronies, he surprised many of his cabinet members, who saw the election as a near-suicidal act.
“Macron thought the house would burn down within three years,” said Nicole Bacaran, an author and political scientist, referring to Le Pen's possible victory in the 2027 presidential election. “So let's burn it now, and then we'll see.”
France is a country with strong institutions and deep democratic traditions underpinned by the rule of law. France does not burn easily, and it will not burn out. As a permanent member of the UN Security Council and a nuclear power, France occupies and will maintain an important position in international affairs, even if its internal difficulties will affect that position to some extent.
Thanks in part to Mr. Macron's policies, the French economy has attracted huge amounts of foreign investment in recent years and unemployment has fallen. France's economic vitality appears greater than that of troubled Germany, even as the national debt and budget deficit have risen to levels that have alarmed both the European Commission and the ratings agencies. Driving through France, you wouldn't think the country was in crisis.
But Macron has led France to a dangerous crossroads. There are reasons why political barriers have long been erected against the Rally National: the party has a quasi-fascist history (now denied) and a deep-rooted belief that immigration dilutes the essence of the French nation. It evokes extreme reactions and collaborative memories of the Vichy wartime regime.
France has a large Muslim population, estimated at around 5 million, many of whom fear being ruled by the National Union. Overall, there is a deep sense of uncertainty across the country.
“Burning down houses is dangerous,” Bacharan said. “Macron should have known that.”