Donald J. Trump's views on the presidency have become more positive since leaving office, strengthening his electoral claims and viewing his opponent as unfit for office, according to a new New York Times/Paper poll. This poses a risk to President Biden's strategy. Siena University.
While memories of Mr. Trump's chaotic and chaotic administration have not faded much, many voters now have a brighter picture of his handling of the economy, immigration and maintaining law and order. Ahead of the 2020 election, only 39% of voters said the country was better off since Trump took office. Looking back, nearly half say he made things better while president.
The poll results highlight how some voters have changed their minds about the Trump era, remembering it as a time of economic prosperity and strong national security. Even as Trump faces dozens of felonies and is scheduled to appear in a New York courtroom on Monday to select jurors in one of his four criminal trials, views of the administration remain unchanged. Change is happening.
Many voters still remember Trump as a divisive and polarizing figure, giving him poor ratings on race relations and national unity. But more voters think Trump's term in office has been better for the country than the current administration, with 42% rating Trump's term as mostly good for the country compared to Biden's term. 25% said the same. Nearly half say the Biden era was mainly bad for the country.
Many of Mr. Trump's key constituencies, such as white voters without college degrees, are likely to view his time in office particularly favorably. But a broad swath of the country, including Hispanic voters, voters over 30, and most low- and middle-income voters, now sees more good than bad from Trump's time in office.
Maya Garcia, 23, describes herself as a former “Trump hater.” But now, she says, she has come to believe that Trump's controversial style is helping to curb crime and maintain order in the country.
“The first time he was running, I thought, 'What the hell is this guy talking about?' What the hell is he saying?” Garcia, a restaurant worker in Canoga Park, Calif. said, “I feel like he's saying all the wrong things. But honestly, if you look deeper into his character, he actually cares about the country.'' he said. She added: “At first I didn't like it. But sometimes we need people like that in our lives.”
Garcia voted for Biden four years ago and is dissatisfied with his handling of the border, crime, mental health and the rising cost of living. She plans to support Trump in November.
Changes in perceptions of Trump are not uncommon, and presidents are usually viewed in a better light after leaving office. His average approval rating during George W. Bush's presidency was 49 percent. Voters currently give him a 57 percent approval rating while in the White House. Also, according to Gallup, President Barack Obama received a 15 percentage point increase after leaving the White House.
What's unusual about the 2024 race is that Trump is running again, making sentiment about the presidency a salient and potentially influential voting issue.
Part of the shift in views of Trump may be due to his declining profile. Since his departure, Mr. Trump has disappeared from public life, spending most of his time at his private club and residence, Mar-a-Lago, in Palm Beach, Florida, and at court hearings. He won the Republican presidential primary by a landslide without participating in any debates. His social media posts on his own platform receive less attention than Twitter. He still holds large rallies, but they have received less coverage than his previous campaigns.
The most improved views of Mr. Trump centered on the economy, with some voters saying Mr. Biden has struggled to keep pace with rising costs and inflation during his presidency.
Marekas Maupin, 41, said she now looks back on the Trump era as a time of economic prosperity, even though Biden is making more money as president. He voted for Biden and now plans to support Trump.
“When he was president, we all had a little more money in our pockets. I think he provided more funding than any president I've ever had,” he said of Trump. Ta. “Now I feel like I’m making more money and I’m not seeing it.”
When asked what they remember most about Trump's time in office, the majority of positive comments mentioned the state of the economy. Many especially remembered the stimulus checks printed with his signature that were sent to tens of millions of Americans during the waning days of his presidency.
Still, much of what voters remember about Trump's presidency remains the same. Views on how to handle the Supreme Court remain largely the same as in 2020, and Trump's low approval ratings for national unity remain fairly similar. The majority of negative comments from participants about Trump's time in office referred to the former president's personality and actions.
“He's horrible. He's a narcissist. He's dishonest. He's a misogynist,” said Dodie Firestone, 74, a Biden supporter from Boca Raton, Florida. can never vote,” he said.
But other voters said they were dissatisfied with Trump's inflammatory style but wondered if past elections had placed too much emphasis on Trump's personality.
Seventy percent of participants said Trump had said something they found offensive, but for many, those comments were a distant memory. Almost half of that group said he hadn't said anything offensive recently. Young voters in particular were more likely to say it had been a while since Trump said something they found offensive.
President Biden spent a significant portion of the campaign criticizing some of Trump's most incendiary statements and failed policies, particularly his response to the coronavirus pandemic and controversial comments about Black and Hispanic voters. has spent much of his time reminding voters.
And while the issue of abortion rights has been at the center of the general election campaign, two voters said their main memory of his presidency was abortion and Trump's role in the Supreme Court's overturning of Roe v. Wade. It was less than %. .
Some of the instinctive fear about Trump's inauguration as president appears to be waning. In October 2016, 40% of voters said they feared what Trump would do if elected. Currently, 31% say they are scared.
A roughly equal share of voters say both Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden are risky choices for the country.
Angie Leon, 23, a Mexican American, said she didn't like the way Trump talked about Latinos. But looking back, she wonders if Trump's inflammatory comments about immigration and border wall construction were just political tactics to shore up his campaign. After supporting Biden in 2020, she plans to switch her vote to Trump in November.
“It felt like it was just his marketing in terms of getting people's attention,” said Leon, a human resources recruiter in Gilroy, California. Comments for the community. ”
camille baker Contributed to the report.
Here's what's important to know about how this Times/Siena poll was conducted:
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We spoke to 1,059 registered voters from April 7th to 11th, 2024.
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Our polls are conducted over the phone using live interviewers, in both English and Spanish. In this study, more than 95 percent of respondents contacted their girlfriends by cell phone.
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Voters for the survey are selected from a list of registered voters. This list includes information about the demographic characteristics of all registered voters, ensuring you reach the right number of voters from each party, race, and region. The poll involved approximately 127,000 phone calls to more than 93,000 voters.
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To further ensure that the results reflect the electorate as a whole, not just those willing to participate in the poll, we looked at underrepresented groups among survey respondents, such as those without a college degree. give more weight to respondents from certain demographic groups. More information about respondent characteristics and weighted samples can be found under Sample Composition on the methodology page.
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The survey's margin of sampling error among registered voters is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. In theory, this means that the results should most often reflect the opinions of the entire population, but many other challenges create additional sources of error. When calculating the difference between two values (such as a candidate's lead in a race), the margin of error is doubled.
Complete results and detailed methodology can be found here. If you'd like to learn more about how and why we conduct surveys, you can find answers to frequently asked questions or submit your own question here.