Time after the presidential election can feel like a clear moment. In the end, the results finally come.
However, over the past 20 years, post-election periods have not made any clear about the future of American politics. The Victory Party is repeatedly convinced that it has won its own mission, or even generational advantage. The shell-shocked loser resigns to internal debate. And just a few months later, it becomes clear that the next phase of American politics is not what the winner imagined.
This week we began focusing on the next two years of American politics, but that doesn't look like the “golden age” of the Magazine or Republican Party. Special House elections in Florida and the Supreme Court elections in Wisconsin confirmed that Democratic voters actually failed to submit to the election last November. More importantly, President Trump's drastic tariffs and subsequent economic recession created a major political risk for Republicans.
In one important respect, Tuesday's election was not important. They do not suggest that Democrats have resolved any of the issues that came with the last election. Instead, they primarily reflect the party's advantages among the most highly informed, educated, and civically engaged voters. This advantage allowed Democrats to excel in low turnout elections throughout the Trump era, despite the frustration that only emerged in the presidential elections and gained great benefits among working-class, non-white voters.
Still, Democrats don't have to face many of those who were dissatisfied and released until 2028. This result provides a plausible preview of elections over the next few years.
While no one may have marched in pink hats, Congressional Democrats may “play dead,” the strength of the democratic special election looks as big as 2017 and 2018, before the so-called blue waves turn over control of their homes.
This probably isn't necessarily a surprise. That's what happened when Trump last won. But what Trump's victory had in mind was that there was no “resistance” for Trump and the “atmosphere” seemed to have caused a broad right-wing cultural change.
But tariffs announced Wednesday bring political issues of a completely different size for Trump and his party. The party and politicians are not evidence of a recession. Historically, even truly dominant political parties have led to major political defeats during a massive economic downturn.
In these cases, even the infamous Smoot Holy tariffs could not have the president be held responsible for the recession as self-evident as today. And whatever it might have felt after the election, Republicans aren't even politically dominant.
If anything, Trump and today's Republicans may be particularly vulnerable, as much of his political strength is built in the economy. Throughout his time as a politician, he usually earned the highest ratings for his handling of economic issues. He benefits from his reputation as a successful businessman and effective economic management during his first term. He was not a small portion as he was unhappy with the high prices and economic upheaval that followed the end of the pandemic despite his enormous personal debt.
In a national survey by the New York Times/Siena College, more than 40% of voters who supported Trump in 2024, not 2020, said the economy or inflation was the most important issue for the vote.
Even before this week's tariffs, Trump wasted his post-election honeymoon. His approval rating was below 50% and he returned to where he stood before the election. His early threat of raising tariffs, including partners in Canada, Mexico and Europe, probably played a key role in reducing his support. In a reversal of the usual pattern, the latest polls found Trump's economic ratings are even worse than his overall approval rating. There were other signs that his actions had been at an early political toll. Consumer confidence has declined, inflation expectations have risen, and polls have found that tariffs themselves are not generally popular.
All of this pales in comparison to the tariffs Trump enacted on Wednesday. Of course, it is too early to judge the complete economic impact and therefore the political fallout. It may be too early to learn about the ultimate Trump tariff policy. For the same reason, many Trump supporters will give policy opportunities. His approval rating may not plummet overnight.
But, as many economic analysts expect, if tariffs cause a recession and a significant price rise, a surge in approval rating may just be the beginning of his problem. Trump may not be running for reelection (despite his dream of a third term), but many Republicans will. Already, half a dozen Republican senators support laws that curb the president's authority to impose tariffs. This isn't enough place to overcome the presidential veto, but it's an extraordinary level of Republican opposition to Trump, and there's no time for opposition to be built.
If economic fallout is bad enough, frustration with the Trump administration could be combined with the long-standing democratic turnout advantage to create a seemingly safe Republican state in 2026 – Kansas, Iowa and Texas are probably plausible and competitive with Senate control. Congressional Republicans' continued support for (or acquiescence) of Trump (or tariffs or other excesses) could be at risk.
For now, all of these potentially extraordinary developments lie in the distant future. They aren't necessarily the case. However, with Trump's second term in shape, it is increasingly clear that the post-election “atmosphere” has increased the “golden age.”
