President Trump will be in Congress on Tuesday night to sell his vision for the second administration to remake the US government and test the limits of executive power.
This speech comes after the speed of enforcement action to cleanse federal bureaucracy he sees as dishonest, and then restructures domestic and foreign policy. In pursuing his agenda, Trump repeatedly made false statements and allegations, including Ukraine launched a war with Russia and the diversity program at the Federal Aviation Administration led to a crash of planes this year.
The president's speech is expected to touch on the major cuts that he and Elon Musk's government efficiency has ordered from the federal programs and the government's workforce. He is also expected to trumpet immigrant crackdowns and his moves and impose sudden tariffs to strengthen domestic manufacturing.
Trump's remarks on these issues over the past few weeks provide a preview of possible story points. This is the fact check:
What I was told
“We were the richest and relatively richest of this, considering this from 1870 to 1913.
– At the conservative political action meeting on February 22nd
error. Trump is wrong that America is the wealthiest in a golden age and exaggerates the impact of tariffs. He also makes the mistake of the country not thriving in 1913, when permanent federal income taxes were introduced.
A White House spokesperson said wages and the economy grew rapidly during a golden age, but did not provide evidence of unparalleled prosperity in that era. The US is much richer than it was when it came to inflation. Between 1870 and 1913, the country's gross domestic product rose from about $1 trillion to about $1 trillion, and from $4,800 to $10,000 per person. These numbers continue to rise sharply, reaching nearly $20 trillion in 2022 to over $58,000 per person.
Compared to other countries, the United States was richer and more abundant than the post-World War II era. The United States was the third largest economy in 1870 after China and India, but by 1920 it was the world's largest economy, accounting for around 23% of the world's GDP, and was the world's largest economy until 2014, when China took the lead.
However, inequality reached its peak in the golden age. The United States had one of the highest economic disparities in the world in 1910. U.S. inequality estimates have declined after the introduction of taxes targeting the wealthy, using standard global metrics, but have rebounded slightly over the last few decades.
Richard White, a historian at Stanford University and expert in the Golden Age, said that while the US economy grew rapidly during the Golden Age, tariffs were not the only factor. He noted other reasons, including the seizure of US homelands and the population doubled, largely due to immigration.
What I was told
“We've discovered hundreds of millions of dollars of fraud so far.”
– Before a bilateral meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron on February 24th
There is no evidence for this. A White House spokesperson said the government's Department of Efficiency has identified federal government's multi-tenant $ fraud. But even the government overhaul team itself doesn't claim to have found so much in certain savings or fraud.
Musk's team said it generated $100 billion in savings as of Sunday. The initiative's website contains details of the cancelled agreement, which states that there will be a wide range of explanations for a savings of around $8 billion, a termination grant of about $10 billion and an ending lease of $660 million. This totals less than $20 billion, and the rest appears to be unexplained.
Nearly $20 billion in savings hasn't been verified, as documented by the New York Times and other press. The initiative regularly updated its website to address mistakes such as contracts that are worth billions but in fact falsely listed as worthy of real value, contracts that were counted multiple times, long-term terminations, or contracts that were not actually cancelled.
The Federal Office of Accountability estimated last year that the government would lose between $233 billion and $521 billion a year to fraud before the creation of DOGE. However, it is unclear whether any of the previously announced Trump administration cuts have cancelled payments for fraudulent services.
Trump and other officials are throwing out spending that they disagree as futile, but fraud includes deceptions or misrepresentations. For example, Doge cancels the lease on vacant real estate that is not in use and says that “there is a lot of office space available for the current workforce.” They did not mention fraud in these leases.
What I was told
“Europe gave us $100 billion. We had a stupid, incompetent president and management, so the US gave us $35 billion. They'll get the money back.”
– In relation to aid to Ukraine, CPAC on February 22nd
This is exaggerated. Trump exaggerates US financial support for Ukraine, which misrepresents the Russian aggression, and the proportion of European low-key and loans and grants they each have given.
Formal and independent estimates of American aid to Ukraine show that it is about half of Trump's figures. Parliamentary Research Services reported that Parliament has allocated $174 billion in Ukrainian aid from fiscal year 2022. Pentagon inspectors estimated the figure was around $182 billion.
A White House spokesperson argued that indirect costs are tens of thousands of people. She said it included losses in trade with Russia due to economic sanctions and the impact of war on inflation. However, lost trade and inflation also affected Europe, one of Russia's biggest trading partners before the war. Trump acknowledged that at other times the aid the US provided to Ukraine could be less than $350 billion.
The European Union estimates that its member states have made approximately $145 billion of aid available, with hundreds of billions more committed.
Trump has the point that much of America's aid is given grants and direct support rather than loans, but he exaggerates the proportion of loans provided by the European Union.
Pentagon inspectors pointed out that the US provided about $20 billion in loans or about 10% of total aid. In comparison, the European Union said it provided loans of around 35% of its total aid, about $50 billion.
Faced with expansionist Russia and an unpredictable US president, European leaders are also looking to increase their military spending and place a heavy burden on the defense of Ukraine and the continent.
What I was told
“For a long time, there was a president who placed illegal aliens on Park Avenue, Madison Avenue, or Fifth Avenue in Manhattan.” – CPAC on February 22nd
“They sent $59 million to New York City for the hotel. A hotel that was not a luxury that was getting a luxury fee for the immigrants who make their fortunes.” – At the swearing ceremony on February 12th
This is misleading. New York has housed tens of thousands of immigrants in hotels, but Trump is largely wrong about where immigrants are being housed, payments and the role of the Biden administration.
In 2023, Congress created the Shelter and Services Program. It threw about $640 million in grants in 2024 to groups and communities providing shelter and other services to immigrants. The program does not pay directly for hotel rooms or determine exactly where immigrants are housed.
New York City received a total of approximately $190 million in 2023 and 2024, according to federal data.
But the city has spent much more than it received from the federal government to accommodate immigrants. This is because they were trying to provide accommodation beyond the shelters of existing cities. According to the Secretary's report, the city spent nearly $1 billion on housing immigration in 119 hotels between September 2022 and August 2024. Most were budget or medium-sized assets, receiving an average fee of $156 for 2024. There were about 19 hotels in Manhattan.
Luxury hotels in Manhattan generally cost much more. Pricewaterhousecoopers estimates that they had an average daily rate of around $440 per room in 2024, with around $560 or more. Trump International Hotel & Tower, a luxury hotel overlooking Central Park, charges between $475 and $700 per night in standard rooms.
The $59 million figure cited by Trump is the value of the grant given to the city by the federal government in 2024, not the amount paid to a single hotel.
