There's a reason: at the exact moment that manager Gareth Southgate and his players were being yelled at and had plastic cups hurled at them in Cologne on Tuesday, all of the major British bookmakers were slashing their odds of England winning Euro 2024.
It had nothing to do with a sudden surge in optimism or a surge in betting: after all, who was going to bet big money on an England victory after that?
That's because the tournament is starting to take shape. England's odds of winning have dropped, along with Italy, Austria and Switzerland, while the odds of France, Spain, Germany and Portugal have moved accordingly.
If the draw is made after the group stage, as is often the case in European club competitions, it will be hard to see any teams other than Spain, Germany, Portugal and France, who have performed poorly so far but were pre-tournament favourites.
But the path was predetermined. The knockout stage looked uneven before the matches even began, and it became even more uneven after France failed to win their group, putting them in the top half alongside Spain, Germany, Portugal and Denmark. Belgium could also make the cut if they finish second or third in Group E.
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On paper, the bottom quarter of the bracket looks pretty strong — Switzerland plays Italy in Berlin on Saturday, and England takes on the third-placed team (quite likely the Netherlands) on Sunday — but Switzerland, Italy and England all won one game each in the group stage. If you add in the Netherlands (or Romania, Belgium, Slovakia or Ukraine, who finished third in Group E), they'll have four wins from 12 games.
Specifically, the bottom quarter of the draw would see a team with just one win in the group stage progress to the semi-finals, with a worst-case scenario of them facing Austria, Belgium or the Netherlands. The other half of the draw would most likely see Spain or Germany facing Portugal or France in the semi-finals.
After Tuesday's disastrous 0-0 draw with Slovenia, Southgate was advised that England may have been lucky with how the knockout stages have played out. “We shouldn't be fooled by half of the draw,” he told ITV Sport. “We have to take it step by step. We improved tonight and we have to improve if we want to win in the next round.”
Speaking at the post-match press conference, it was explained to him that England had been drawn in the opposite group to Germany, France, Spain and Portugal: “I have great respect for all the teams you've mentioned, but equally, we have some very good teams in our group,” he said.
But not all is equal. As in the 2018 World Cup, fortune favoured England and every other team in their group, with Austria in particular entitled to claim they got the better of them by finishing above France and the Netherlands.
In 2018, five of the top six teams from the knockout stage – Brazil, Belgium, Portugal, Argentina and France – were on one side of the draw, with Spain (who won only one of their three group matches), Russia, Croatia, Denmark, Sweden, Switzerland, Colombia and England on the other.
That World Cup was widely seen as Belgium's best chance to win a major tournament, with many of Belgium's “golden generation” players at or near the peak of their careers. But Belgium paid a heavy price in Group G, beating Japan and Brazil before losing to France in the semi-finals. England's reward for finishing second to Belgium in their group was a looser group, which allowed them to beat Colombia and Sweden before losing to Croatia in the semi-finals.
A similar imbalance occurred at Euro 2016. Antonio Conte's Italy performed well in the group stage but were rewarded with a tough draw for winning Group E. They beat Spain 2-0 but lost to Germany on penalties in the quarter-finals, who lost to hosts France in the semi-finals. Meanwhile, Portugal barely managed to come third in Group F after drawing with Iceland, Austria and Hungary, before beating Croatia in the round of 16, Poland in the quarter-finals and Wales in the semi-finals to reach the final.
Some competitions, such as the FA Cup, are based on a free draw, while others, such as the NFL and NBA, rank teams based on their regular season performances, with the two best teams from either conference theoretically placed on opposite sides of the draw.
International football tournaments like the World Cup, European Championship, Copa America, African Cup of Nations, Asian Cup, etc. don't work like that: from the moment the draw is made, it's already decided that the winner of Group A will play the runner-up of Group B, the winner of Group C will play the runner-up of Group D, etc.
While the group stage will be drawn in seeding order, the allocation of teams to each group will be done by random draw, increasing the potential for an unequal knockout tournament. As the tournament will be condensed to four or five weeks, with matches being played in the host country, it would be beneficial to have a structure decided in advance for planning, travel and ensuring each team has sufficient rest between matches.
There's still a discrepancy: Austria has seven days off between the end of their group stage matches on Tuesday and their knockout stage match next Tuesday, while the team that will face Spain in the last 16 (as yet to be determined) has just four days off.
Everything is variable in knockout football, but it's possible to predict with some confidence that teams who performed poorly at Euro 2024 could make it to the semi-finals or even the final. After a tough group stage, teams like England, Switzerland and Italy have made solid starts, which could be the springboard for one of them.
(Top photo: Andreas Gorra/Picture Alliance via Getty Images)