Voters in 27 countries go to the polls this week in European elections, promising a big surge in nationalist support — but the prospects of success are already raising questions among far-right parties about how far they might go.
The issue is particularly pressing as popular far-right parties in Italy and France seek to gain mainstream acceptance, threatening to split those that have become sanitised and acceptable from those that remain taboo.
Today, the far-right movement is a hotbed of rifts and shifting alliances.
Last year, France's National Party leader Marine Le Pen appeared to scorn Italy's far-right Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who has sought to be a reliable partner of mainstream conservatives since coming to power. “Ms Meloni is not my twin sister,” she told the Italian newspaper La Repubblica, making it clear she considered herself a more hardline figure.
Now Le Pen has proposed forming an alliance in the European Parliament, but it is unclear whether Meloni is willing to settle for her support, as her party remains despised by many on Europe's centre-right.
Meanwhile, Le Pen has distanced herself from the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which she sees as becoming too radical even for her own supporters. In May, Le Pen and her European Parliament allies, which are outspoken in their support of nationalism, expelled the AfD after one of its leaders appeared to justify the inclusion of some members of the Nazi paramilitary group, the SS.
“Sacrificing the AfD has been a great political gift for Ms. Le Pen,” said Jacob F. Kirkegaard, a Brussels-based political analyst and senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “She can position herself as 'not far-right.'”
There is no doubt that nationalist parties across Europe have supported each other, as the success of each paves the way for the acceptance of the others. As homogenous political actors, they focus on important themes that they share across borders, such as the protection of Christian traditions and family values, opposition to immigration, and criticism of the European Union.
But now, for the far right, it's a debate about acceptability. It's proving to be a confusing situation for a party that until recently was considered almost entirely unacceptable by the European establishment.
The breakdown of this barrier was driven by the success of far-right parties and the adoption of some of their policies by mainstream parties.
It also poses a problem for the European establishment: which nationalist parties are they willing to partner with, if necessary?
“Mainstream parties are shifting their red lines,” said Nikolai von Ondalza, a political scientist at the German Institute for International and Security Studies. “Where they draw them will have an impact on who has the majority in the European Parliament.”
The challenge is particularly acute for European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, the EU's chief executive and leader of parliament's mainstream conservative bloc.
Polls predict that the Thursday-Sunday vote will shrink the left and grow the far right, suggesting that Ms von der Leyen may seek allies on the far right to garner enough votes to be approved for another term in parliament. But such a move would risk alienating the centre-left forces on which she has relied, and any far-right party, including Mr Meloni's, is too extreme for the centre-left.
She has tried to take a firm stance on who is an acceptable partner, drawing a clear line between her and the far-right camp.
“It's very important to have clear principles – who we want to work with,” she said at a recent election debate. Parties must be “pro-European,” “pro-Ukraine,” “anti-Putin” and “pro-rule of law,” she said.
Von der Leyen ruled out Le Pen's National Union party, the Alternative for Germany and Poland's Federal Party, saying they were “friends of Putin and want to destroy our Europe.”
Meloni has suggested she is on the tolerant side of this divide, which could put her in a key position after the election. Where she stands may be up to her choice.
Le Pen hopes that her alliance with Meloni will help turn the far right into the second largest party in the European Parliament, and Meloni has said he wants to send leftists into the opposition.
But experts say teaming up with Le Pen could set back the Italian prime minister's efforts to expand his influence in Brussels and become a partner of mainstream conservatives.
While Meloni has political roots in a neo-fascist party and wages a culture war at home, he has emerged as a pragmatic activist on the international stage, firmly aligned with European leaders on key issues such as supporting Ukraine in its war with Russia.
Ms. Le Pen is in a tougher position: While Mr. Meloni leads one of the EU's founding countries, she remains on the sidelines in France, where her opponents remain concerned that she and her party pose a threat to the republic's values.
Perhaps more importantly, Ms. Le Pen and her other far-right allies have been far more equivocal than Mr. Meloni on issues such as aid to Ukraine.
While Le Pen and some of her party's leaders have condemned Russia's all-out invasion of Ukraine, others have been more ambivalent. The party has repeatedly opposed sanctions on Russian imports and has ruled out Ukraine joining the European Union or NATO.
“The group will be re-toxicated,” von Ondalza said, making it “an unacceptable partner for the centre-right.”
Members of Germany's AfD have also been accused of having ties to Russia, and in Italy, Ms. Le Pen's ally, Matteo Salvini, recently said that President Vladimir V. Putin's approved election was a legitimate expression of the will of the Russian people.
Another far-right strongman, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, supports and follows Putin's lead, and continues to oppose arms supplies to Ukraine and a ban on Russian oil imports.
Immigration is another issue that highlights the contradictions in nationalist parties' attempts to build an international alliance: parties are largely united in their opposition to immigration, but at the EU level, national interests clash.
Meloni supported legislation that would distribute migrants from border countries where they arrive (such as Italy and Greece) to other European Union countries. Nationalist leaders far from the coast, such as Hungary's Orban, were less keen on the idea.
“Isn't it a contradiction for nationalist parties to team up with transnational parties?” asked Alberto Alemano, professor of European Union law at HEC Business School in Paris, adding that the parties are “essentially incompatible”.
These divisions are not new: far-right parties have funded, encouraged, embraced and imitated each other, dreamed of forming a grand coalition government with nationalist parties, yet simultaneously clashed and criticized each other.
Nigel Farage's UK Independence Party, which led Britain's exit from the EU in 2014, rejected a pact with Le Pen's party on grounds of “prejudice and anti-Semitism”. Before proposing the alliance, Le Pen accused Meloni of trying to help von der Leyen “contribute to the worsening of policies that harm the people of Europe”.
Still, for now, Meloni isn't ruling out any possibilities.
Asked if she would join forces with a far-right party, she said she would not give a “good looks certificate” to any party: “They have given me one for life.”
Aurélien Breeden He contributed reporting from Paris.