RALEIGH, N.C. (WNCN) — If you thought a conviction against Donald Trump would give Democrats an advantage in the fall elections, you might be wrong. A new poll conducted by East Carolina University shows how former President Trump compares to other Republicans in North Carolina.
With Democrat Roy Cooper's second term coming to an end, North Carolina will elect a new governor. The leading candidates are North Carolina Attorney General Josh Stein (Democrat) and Lt. Governor Mark Robinson (Republican). ECU voter surveys show Stein with 44% support and Robinson with 43% support. However, Josh Stein holds a commanding lead among registered independents, the state's largest voting bloc.
“Josh Stein won the independent vote 46-35 in our poll, which is an 11-point margin. If Josh Stein wins this election, it's independent voters who will carry him across the finish line,” said Peter Francia, director of ECU's Survey Research Center.
Francia also noted that voter turnout could make a big difference: “Mark Robinson has won nearly every Republican that we surveyed, so a high and strong Republican turnout in this election could be enough to give Mark Robinson a win,” he said.
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Both the Joe Biden and Donald Trump campaigns are no doubt eager to know whether Trump's felony conviction will affect North Carolina voters: 32% of those surveyed said the ruling would make them more likely to vote for Trump, 29% said it would make them less likely, and 37% said the ruling would have no effect.
After the verdict, North Carolina voters' approval ratings gave Trump a five-point lead over Biden, with Trump at 48% and Biden at 43%. Polls also show that 96% of voters have already decided who they will vote for.
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“Donald Trump was president for four years. Joe Biden was president for four years. These are familiar names, familiar faces, people know both candidates well and their opinions are rock solid,” Francia said.
President Biden has time before November to convince Americans that the country's economy is heading in the right direction, while President Trump is trying to convince voters that he is the right person to improve the economy.
When it comes to the issues that are most important to North Carolinians, 42% said inflation and/or the cost of living in general, 17% said the economy in general, 13% said new state laws regarding abortion, and 10% said border security was the top issue.
“We wanted to find out what matters most and what actually motivates voters to make the choices they make, and the economy will definitely win,” Francia said.
46% of those surveyed approve of Governor Cooper's job performance.
“This is a truly remarkable achievement for a governor nearing the end of his second term. While voters are often unhappy with two-term incumbent governors, Roy Cooper has managed to maintain at least a relative popularity as governor of this state,” Francia said.