One of the worst droughts in more than 40 years has wilted crops, decimated livestock, and left an estimated 20 million people in southern Africa in the United Nations' We are facing what we call 'severe hunger'. The price of corn, the region's main crop, is soaring.
Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe have all declared national emergencies.
It's a bitter harbinger of how warming temperatures are projected to affect regions likely to be severely affected by climate change, but scientists said Thursday that the current drought is more likely than a cause. It said it was caused by a natural weather cycle known as El Niño. global warming.
In the past few years, the region has been hit by cyclones, unusually heavy rains, and growing cholera outbreaks, making the impact even more severe.
I need “urgent help”
This year's rain started late and was less than usual. In February, when crops need it most, parts of Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, Angola, Mozambique and Botswana received a fifth of their normal rainfall.
This is devastating for these largely agricultural countries, where farmers are completely dependent on rain.
In a district called Chikwawa in southern Malawi, some residents were crossing a crocodile-infested river to collect wild tubers known as nyika to stave off hunger. “My community needs urgent help,” said a local leader who identified himself as Chief Chimombo.
Chikondi Chabuta, a relief worker with the Malawi-based international relief agency CARE, said the cows went into fields still muddy from last year's heavy rains in search of water but became stranded. According to the group, thousands of cattle deaths have been reported in the area.
The first few months of each year, just before harvest begins in late April and May, are usually a lean season. This year's harvest is expected to be significantly lower, so the lean season is likely to continue for a long time. “The food security situation is very bad and is expected to get worse,” Chabuta said.
In addition to low yields, the war in Ukraine, one of the world's largest grain exporters, and currency depreciation in several southern African countries have caused grain prices to rise abnormally, FAO said. He pointed out that it has become expensive to buy. Food, fuel, fertilizer.
why is it happening
The driving force behind the current drought lies in the Pacific Ocean, according to an analysis released Thursday by World Weather Attribution, an international coalition of scientists focused on rapid assessment of extreme weather events. It is said to be due to El Niño, a natural weather phenomenon that heats the area every few times. Tweak the weather in different ways in different parts of the world. In southern Africa, precipitation tends to be below average due to the El Niño phenomenon.
The study concluded that El Niño has doubled the likelihood of this drought occurring. That weather pattern is currently weakening, but is expected to return soon.
The study concluded that the drought may have also been exacerbated by deforestation, which may have disrupted local rainfall patterns and degraded soils.
It is notoriously difficult to attribute droughts to global warming. This is especially true in regions like southern Africa. One reason for this is the lack of a dense network of weather stations that provide detailed historical data.
Scientists are unsure whether climate change played a role in this particular drought. However, there is little uncertainty about the long-term effects of climate change in this part of the world.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, average temperatures in southern Africa have risen by 1.04 to 1.8 degrees Celsius over the past 50 years, resulting in an increase in the number of hot days. That makes dry years even worse. Plants and animals become even thirstier. The water will evaporate. The soil dries out. Scientific models show that southern Africa is becoming generally drier.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change calls southern Africa a “climate change hotspot, both in terms of extreme heat and dryness.”
cost of adaptation
For the millions of people trying to cope with this drought, it matters little whether the dry skies are caused by climate change or something else.
What matters is whether these communities can adapt quickly enough to weather shocks.
“It's really important that we actually improve resilience to drought, especially in these parts of the continent,” said one of the study authors and a research fellow at the Grantham Institute, Imperial College's Center for Climate and Environment. said one Joyce Kimutai. London.
There are existing solutions that require funding to implement. Early warning systems to let people know what's coming, insurance and other social security, programs to help people prepare, and diversifying what farmers plant. Corn is very sensitive to heat and irregular rain.
golden matonga Contributed to the report.