Democratic Senate candidates in Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin lead their Republican rivals as President Biden continues to struggle, according to polls from The New York Times, Philadelphia Inquirer and Siena College. It has a large lead in major states.
The president's difficulties with former President Donald J. Trump are not enough to quell other Democrats, especially Senate incumbents facing lesser-known Republicans, according to a battleground poll of registered voters. It has been shown that there may not be any.
Ticket splitters are not plentiful. In four states, about 10% of Trump voters support the Democratic Senate candidate, while about 5% of Biden supporters support the Republican.
But those voters are enough to give Democrats a chance to hold on to the Senate, where they currently hold a one-seat majority. To maintain control, Democrats need to win all contested Senate seats and win the White House.
[You can find the full results of the polls, including the exact questions that were asked, here. You can see answers to common questions about our polling process here.]
In Pennsylvania, Democratic Sen. Bob Casey has the support of 46% of voters, while 41% say they support his Republican challenger, wealthy financial executive David McCormick. He has a slight head-to-head advantage, but it's a close race with Biden, 47% to 44%.
In Wisconsin, incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin has a 49% to 40% lead over Republican banker Eric Hovde. Biden has a slight edge over Trump, 47% to 45%.
In Nevada, where Mr. Biden has struggled the most, Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen has a narrow lead over his Republican challenger, disabled veteran Sam Brown, 40% to 38%, among registered voters. Of these, 23% are undecided.
In Arizona, the only battleground state with an open Senate seat, Rep. Ruben Gallego, a Phoenix-area Democrat, beat Kali Lake, a former Republican news anchor with close ties to Trump, 45% to 41. % and leads with 14 votes. Percentage not determined. In Arizona, Trump leads Biden 49% to 42%.
The contrasting results highlight the power of incumbency and how it can be nullified when a former president challenges a sitting president. Voters one after another expressed comfort with incumbent Senate Democrats and a near-total lack of knowledge about their Republican challengers.
“Jackie Rosen has been around for a long time,” said Brian Dickinson, a 25-year-old registered Democrat from Las Vegas who said he was considering splitting the ticket and voting for Trump. “I think she's a very good Democrat.”
In Pennsylvania, 23% of Republicans viewed Mr. Casey favorably, compared to just 6% who viewed Mr. Biden favorably.
Mr. Casey “is a name I've heard before,” said retired Army veteran Harry Wireback, 56, an independent voter from Croydon, Pennsylvania. Mr. Casey was first elected to the Senate in 2006. His father, Bob Casey, served two terms as governor of Pennsylvania.
However, the Democratic advantage does not necessarily improve Biden's standing, as few respondents lacked an opinion about the likely presidential candidate.
“If I had to choose an opossum over those three, I would vote for the roadkill opossum,” Wireback said of Biden, Trump and independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Indeed, many ticket splitters said they remained angry and dissatisfied with their presidential choice.
“I'm not a party person. I'm more about the state, and Gallego is doing a good job for the state,” said the Tonopah, Ariz., resident who runs the Carnivore Creations food truck. said Terry Crabtree, a 52-year-old disabled Maricopa County resident. “I can't stand Biden. I think he should go to jail. I think Trump should go to jail too. I hate being given those two options.”
Democratic gains in Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin still only give the party an outside chance of retaining the Senate majority. With Sen. Joe Manchin III, a deep-red West Virginia Democrat, retiring, Democrats will need to win all competitive Senate seats alongside the White House to give Vice President Kamala Harris the tie-breaking vote next year. Even if Democrats win overwhelmingly in all other Senate races, if Trump wins and Manchin loses his seat, Republicans will take control of the chamber.
Michigan, another battleground state, will also have a U.S. Senate race to fill the seat of retiring Democrat Debbie Stabenow, but the Republican candidates won't be decided until the August primary, the Times reported. The Siena poll did not ask Michigan voters their preferences. .
Two other important Senate races are not among the presidential battleground states surveyed. For Democrats to have a chance of securing a majority, Sens. Jon Tester of Montana and Sherrod Brown of Ohio must win reelection this November in heavily Republican states. .
Democratic Senate candidates are running stronger campaigns than Biden in key Democratic constituencies, including young voters, Black voters and Hispanic voters. Latino voters appear to be important again, both at the presidential level and in Senate votes. Trump won 42% of the Hispanic vote in battleground states, but only 29% of the Senate Republican vote.
“I basically like what she's doing,” said Joseph Gonzalez, 60, a Hispanic truck driver from Milwaukee, of Baldwin, who is seeking a third term in the Senate. “I don't like what President Biden is doing. He's letting America down.”
Democratic senators, flush with cash and spending heavily on airwaves, have already distanced themselves from Mr. Biden. Mr. Casey's new ad features a worker wearing a helmet declaring that “our government has turned its back on us” by using imported steel, without specifying which administration did it. The newspaper credits Mr. Casey with the “Buy America” provision in the president's vast infrastructure bill, which Mr. Biden also claims credit for.
Not all ticket splitters supported Trump and the Democratic Senate candidates.
Benjamin Johnsen, 37, a truck driver from Superior, Wisconsin, said he has supported Biden since he was vice president in President Barack Obama's administration and trusts him to protect the country from terrorism. Told. But he is leaning toward Baldwin's Republican challenger, Hovde, saying he wants Republicans to control the Senate and keep taxes low.
But more typical is Chris Myers, 52, a union construction worker in Hartford, Wisconsin. Myers said he has never seen more construction work happening in the state than what is currently underway. In fact, he said, he is helping build a $3 billion Microsoft artificial intelligence data center that Biden touted Wednesday in Wisconsin as part of his administration's pledge.
Still, Meyers said he would split his vote between Baldwin, who he praises for “doing good things for the country,” and Trump, saying, “I like his go-get, no-take. ” he said. -Shitty attitude. ” Meyers primarily complained that Biden’s visit last week to celebrate the creation of Meyers’ job ended up slowing down concrete trucks.
In virtually all Senate races, undecided voters could swing the race to Republican challengers. This is a sharp contrast to the presidential race, where voters in battleground states claim their views on Biden and Trump are more entrenched.
“I'm voting for Donald Trump, definitely,” said Wesley Scarborough, 22, a Hispanic Las Vegas electrician. But although he told pollsters he supported Rosen, he said in a subsequent interview that he wasn't sure. “Honestly, I’m not sure about the Senate,” he said.
Asked why Nevada's Hispanic voters are leaning toward Trump, Scarborough said, “The border crisis has a lot to do with it.” He said migrants who cross the border are “lazy and just looking for something free.”
Andrew Tolansky Contributed to the report.
Here's what's important to know about how these polls were conducted:
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We spoke to 4,097 registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin from April 28 to May 9, 2024.
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Our polls are conducted over the phone using live interviewers in both English and Spanish. In this study, almost 95% of respondents contacted us via mobile phone. Here you can see the exact questions asked and their order.
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Voters for the survey are selected from a list of registered voters. This list includes information about the demographic characteristics of all registered voters, ensuring that you have the right number of voters for each party, race, and region. In this series of polls, he made nearly 500,000 calls to about 410,000 voters.
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To further ensure that the results reflect the electorate as a whole, not just those willing to participate in the poll, we looked at underrepresented groups among survey respondents, such as those without a college degree. give more weight to respondents from certain demographic groups. More information about respondent characteristics and weighted samples can be found under Sample Composition on the methodology page.
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When states are combined, the margin of sampling error for registered voters is plus or minus 1.8 percentage points. Each state's poll has a margin of error from plus or minus 3.6 points in Pennsylvania to plus or minus 4.6 points in Georgia. In theory, this means that the results should most often reflect the opinions of the entire population, but many other challenges create additional sources of error. When calculating the difference between two values (such as a candidate's lead in a race), the margin of error is doubled.
Complete results and detailed methodology can be found here. If you'd like to learn more about how and why we conduct surveys, you can find answers to frequently asked questions or submit your own question here.
The New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College of Pennsylvania poll was funded by a grant from the Lenfest Institute for Journalism. This poll was designed and conducted independently of the Institute.