If you want to be president, you probably have to win Wisconsin.
And if you're a Democrat, there's a proven way to do that. Turn up the numbers in Dane County, a fast-growing and highly progressive region of the state that includes Madison and the state's eponymous public university.
President Biden's visit to the Madison High School on Monday, where he announced a new plan to help pay off student loans, appeared to be part of an effort to boost his re-election hopes in the upbeat college town. The Democratic spot was critical to winning the state in 2020 and is seen as crucial to his chances in November.
“My district could decide the fate of the free world,” said state Sen. Kelda Royce, a Democrat who represents much of Madison.
But this year, college towns have emerged as a more complicated battleground for Democrats, amid an enthusiasm gap among younger voters and growing anger on college campuses over the administration's handling of Israel's war in Gaza. So I decided to head to Madison myself.
“We're definitely a little nervous,” said Megan Eisenstein, communications director for Lawrence University's College Democrats group. She was traveling to Madison from her campus in Appleton, Wisconsin, over the weekend for the statewide College Democratic Party convention. .
“I think the hardest thing right now is getting young people excited about Joe Biden,” she added.
voting without instructions
When Wisconsin voters went to the polls in the snow and rain last week in what was effectively a landslide presidential primary, nearly 50,000 people voted “without instruction” for the Democratic Party. That represents 8.3 percent of the state's Democratic primary voters. He appears to have decided to use his ballot to protest the Biden administration's support for Israel's war in Gaza.
Just as “uncommitted” voters did in Michigan, where the protest movement was born, “uncoached” voters weren't enough to win delegates to this summer's Democratic National Convention.
But it was enough to send a signal of voters' dissatisfaction with Biden, especially in a state that Biden won by just 20,682 votes in 2020 (there were also some kind of protest votes on the Republican side). (Candidate Nikki Haley participated) After receiving over 75,000 votes, she dropped out of the race. )
In Madison, nearly one-third of Democratic primary voters in precincts on or near the University of Wisconsin-Madison cast their votes “without instructions,” according to an analysis by the Daily Cardinal, an independent student newspaper at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. It is said that he did.
“This isn't just some trivial, 'I wish it was the other way around,'” said Dalia Saba, a student organizer with Listen to Wisconsin, the group that led the push for no-prompt voting. he says. . “This is a deep betrayal and a deep anger.”
Democratic state Rep. Francesca Hong, who supported the “no directive” voting campaign, said Biden could underperform here in November.
Hong believes there is still time for Biden to mobilize these voters if the Biden administration changes its war policies, but added, “I think there are some people who will say they will never vote for this president right now.'' ” he said.
Democratic Party is also paying attention
On Sunday afternoon, in the main chamber of the University of Wisconsin-Madison's business school, Wisconsin State Democrats were wrapping up their convention work with a sunny slogan: “Blue skies ahead!”
Student Democrats here are extremely proud of their turnout in the 2020 midterm elections and last year's state Supreme Court election, converting the court to liberal control. They see themselves as voters at a tipping point in a state at a tipping point.
But as they cleaned up blue plastic tablecloths and empty iced coffee cups, some activists expressed feelings of unease.
“Joe Biden is going to see the results in Michigan and Minnesota,” said Matthew Lehner, the group's new chairman, regarding unconfirmed votes in those states. He mentioned and said: Listen to people. ”
Wisconsin Democratic Party Chairman Ben Wikler said the state's races can't afford not to pay attention to what could affect turnout.
“There's no question that turnout in any district in Wisconsin has the potential to make or break not just Wisconsin, but the entire presidential election,” Wikler said.
But he takes comfort in the fact that young people in cities like Madison chose to express their dismay with Biden by going to the polls rather than staying home.
“This fall, we're going to put all of our energy into making sure we beat Trump again,” he said.
enthusiasm gap
John Della Volpe, director of polling at the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics and an expert on youth voting, said college voters are different in every election.
“This generation seems to be expressing concern about Gaza and also about why this matters and why voting matters,” Della Volpe said. . “That's the biggest concern.”
A Della Volpe poll late last year found that young voters were less likely to vote in 2024 than in 2020, and a Times poll conducted this year found that young voters were less likely to vote in 2024 than in 2020. It turns out that this is the age group least likely to feel expectations or excitement.
The Biden campaign is rolling out a national organizing program that directly targets young voters, working with youth voting groups to reach more than 155 million people in “direct voter contact.” Still, the lack of enthusiasm was evident on Madison's campus. When freshman Sophie Philipchuk was asked about the election over coffee in her student union, she winced.
“There's no better candidate,” said Democrat Filipczak, who plans to vote for Biden but wishes he had been more excited. “It's the rich and it's the old. That's the way things have been.”
Friend and independent voter Carissa Schumacher said she doesn't like either major party's options and plans to support an independent candidate in the fall.
“I can’t support Trump or Biden,” she said. If she had to choose between those two and independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., she said she would vote for Kennedy.
The Biden campaign says it is working hard to communicate the president's accomplishments across campus, such as this one, but neither Philipchuk nor Schumacher plan to pay too much attention to official visits in their own backyards. No, that's exactly what he was doing there.
“I can't say I'm super enthusiastic about going to see him,” Filipchuk said.
President Trump talks about abortion
After months of mixed signals on the issue of abortion rights, former President Donald J. Trump released a video Monday morning saying he believes the polarizing issue should be left to individual states.
It seems that many people were dissatisfied.
Democrats, including Mr. Biden, quickly pushed back by trying to tie Mr. Trump to restrictive abortion bans in place in states such as Texas. Opponents of abortion rights were angry that President Trump did not mention a nationwide abortion ban.
But as my colleagues Lisa Lehrer and Elizabeth Diaz have reported, there are other ways President Trump could curb access to abortion across the country as president. I met with Lisa to talk about the difficult politics for Trump and the anti-abortion plans his allies are proposing.
JB: President Trump has gone back and forth on the abortion issue over the years. He likes to take credit for appointing some of the judges who overturned Roe v. Wade. He blames the Republican Party's struggles in the 2022 midterm elections on the “abortion issue.” He has also indicated that he will accept a 15-week suspension. What does today's announcement tell him about the politics of this issue?
LL: Trump has always been a very flawed messenger for the anti-abortion cause. In the late 1990s, he called himself pro-choice. In 2016, he made a number of very big promises to the anti-abortion movement, including appointing judges to overturn Roe. As you pointed out, he has always been wishful thinking on this issue.
I think what this tells us is that Mr. Trump understands the politics of all of this. And he points to what everyone is seeing in the polling data: The idea of a federal ban is popular among Republican voters, but unpopular with a broader electorate, especially among independents. I understand that.
JB: Other than a national ban, are there other ways President Trump could use his second term to curb abortion in this country?
LL: This whole idea of a national abortion ban was always a bit of a red herring. Because it is highly unlikely that such a ban would pass Congress. A second Trump administration could significantly restrict access to abortion across the country, regardless of state laws and even without a federal ban.
As we've reported, what President Trump could actually do is use the power of the Comstock Act to force his administration to effectively ban or severely restrict access to abortion across the country. This is his 1800s law that could be interpreted to prohibit the mailing of any items used in abortion procedures. It could mean something like a speculum, or more significantly, an abortion pill. Abortion pills are now used in the vast majority of abortions across the country.
on the ground
eclipse twofers in wisconsin
Seeing Air Force One is nothing new to Tony Ketterer, a security expert whose office is just outside Madison's airport. This is a swing state, after all. Presidents come and go.
But on Monday, he stood in the parking lot outside his office, watching something special happen. A plane carrying President Biden, who had just finished speaking about student loans, lifted into the air and took off as a shadow curved on the ground. Just before the peak of the partial solar eclipse.
“Some 200 million people will see the eclipse,” Ketterer said.
“The president is riding into the eclipse!” marveled former Republican state Rep. Dave Hutchison, who was also in the parking lot.
Kethaler, a moderate voter, said he typically leans toward Democrats, while Hutchison, a moderate Republican who plans to vote for Biden, wondered what the president saw. Did he have eclipse glasses? What does this phenomenon look like from the sky?
Both were glad to be part of a rare communal experience during a divisive political season.
“I hope that's a common experience and that Americans can all talk about that, regardless of what's going on in the political world or in the international world,” Ketterer said.
And he very kindly shared his eclipse glass with me.