Who will win the first 12-team College Football Playoff? Six teams received at least one vote in a survey of 30 college football writers and editors. The AthleticA big change from the 10-year postseason tournament, which featured just four teams in the field.
Oregon State received the majority of votes, but plenty of diversity emerged as staffers filled out slots ahead of the first round, which begins Friday night at Notre Dame and Indiana. In fact, Clemson, the 12th seed with three losses, also received a national championship ticket.
Here's who we picked and how their predictions compare to Austin Mock's predictive model.
even deeper
College Football Playoff 2024 predictions: Odds for all 12 teams in bracket to advance
first round
| first round | staff | model |
|---|---|---|
|
63.3% |
71% |
|
|
36.7% |
29% |
|
|
90.0% |
72% |
|
|
10.0% |
28% |
|
|
90.0% |
65% |
|
|
10.0% |
35% |
|
|
73.3% |
67% |
|
|
26.7% |
33% |
Unsurprisingly, the consensus of the 30 voters is chalk.
According to BetMGM, the better seed is favored by at least 7.5 points in every game in the first round. Mock predicts that each favorite has at least a 65 percent chance of winning, with the closest in staff voting being Tennessee receiving 11 votes to beat Ohio State. This matchup will definitely be a challenge for the Buckeyes. Especially considering how their offensive line played in the game. Lost to Michigan.
quarterfinals
| rose bowl | staff | model |
|---|---|---|
|
83.3% |
53% |
|
|
16.7% |
37% |
|
|
0.0% |
11% |
Despite being the only undefeated team in the nation, Oregon State ended up in a tough tie and will face the winner of Ohio State vs. Tennessee in the Rose Bowl. The mock model gives the Ducks only a 53% chance of winning. It will be a rematch for Ohio State since Oregon defeated the Buckeyes 32-31 in a thrilling game in Eugene in October.
Still, 25 of 30 Rose Bowl voters chose Oregon, compared to just five for Ohio State and none for Tennessee. Everyone who picked the Buckeyes to beat Oregon also picked the Buckeyes to win the national title.
|
peach bowl |
staff |
model |
|---|---|---|
|
80.0% |
60% |
|
|
13.3% |
twenty two% |
|
|
6.7% |
18% |
Arizona State is seeded as the No. 4 seed as the Big 12 champion, but is ranked No. 12 in the CFP Top 25. They are nine spots behind Texas and four spots ahead of Clemson. Texas was the overwhelming favorite to defeat Clemson State in the Peach Bowl and advance past the Sun Devils to the state semifinals of the Cotton Bowl, with only four players choosing Arizona State to win, Clemson State Only two students chose university.
|
sugar bowl |
staff |
model |
|---|---|---|
|
53.3% |
52% |
|
|
46.7% |
34% |
|
|
0.0% |
14% |
Of the 30 voters, only three chose Indiana to beat Notre Dame, the Hoosiers' two upsets, and none chose Georgia. However, staff members are divided on the possibility of a Georgia vs. Notre Dame Sugar Bowl. Of the 27 players who picked Notre Dame to beat Indiana, 14 included players from the Fighting Irish who beat the Bulldogs.
|
fiesta bowl |
staff |
model |
|---|---|---|
|
53.3% |
33% |
|
|
36.7% |
48% |
|
|
10.0% |
19% |
This is the least powdery part of the bracket. While most voters want Penn State to beat SMU at home, our staff likes to see Boise State revive its Cinderella status in the Fiesta Bowl on New Year's Eve. Historically, both the Nittany Lions (7-0) and Broncos (3-0) are undefeated in the Fiesta Bowl. Here, of the 22 voters who chose Penn State to beat SMU, only half chose the Nittany Lions to beat Boise State. Boise State received a total of 16 votes to win the Fiesta Bowl, to Penn State's 12 votes and SMU's two votes.
The mock model disagrees as Penn State beats both SMUs. and Boise State has 48 percent.
Semi-final
|
cotton bowl |
staff |
model |
|---|---|---|
|
66.7% |
32% |
|
|
16.7% |
twenty five% |
|
|
13.3% |
29% |
|
|
3.3% |
5% |
|
|
0.0% |
5% |
|
|
0.0% |
4% |
Whoever emerges from the trio of Oregon, Ohio State, and Tennessee will face a tough draw in the Cotton Bowl semifinals against Texas, a closer home opponent. Still, two-thirds of the staff want Oregon to win the Cotton Bowl, but only five choose Ohio State, four choose Texas, and one No. 12 seed Clemson made it to the national title game by surprise.
|
orange bowl |
staff |
model |
|---|---|---|
|
50.0% |
29% |
|
|
40.0% |
20% |
|
|
6.7% |
26% |
|
|
3.3% |
11% |
|
|
0.0% |
8% |
|
|
0.0% |
6% |
Our mock model gives Georgia, Penn State, and Notre Dame all a 20-29 percent chance of advancing to the national title game, but our staff primarily gives Georgia or Notre Dame a 20-29 percent chance of advancing to the national title game. are concentrated on either. Georgia State received 15 votes and Notre Dame received 12 votes in the Orange Bowl, while Penn State received just two votes and Boise State received one vote.
national championship tournament
It's difficult to stay undefeated, but 17 out of 30 voters believe Oregon State can finish in first place with a 15-0 record and become the first national champion since Florida in 1996. It's a big step up from the Ducks, who received 10.7 percent of the preseason vote. and 6.7 percent of the midseason vote.
Only four teams had the votes to win the national title in the preseason: Ohio State (57.1%), Georgia (28.6%), Oregon (10.7%) and Alabama (3.6%). By midseason, that number had expanded to five: Texas (50%), Ohio State (36.7%), Oregon (6.7%), Georgia (3.3%) and Clemson (3.3%).
The potential national championship is now down to just 12 teams, but six teams will receive at least one vote to win it all. The case for each of these six teams is as follows.
Oregon: Other teams always have weaknesses that will be exposed at some point. Oregon's biggest threats, Ohio State, Texas and Georgia, looked vulnerable the last time they played. Oregon State's defense showed some cracks against Penn State, but the Ducks showed they can win a shootout if necessary. And Dillon Gabriel is the quarterback I'd want if I could pick one playoff QB to lead a deep run. — Austin Meek
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Oregon State goes undefeated (with dignity) in its first season in the Big Ten. And the duck isn't finished yet.
Ohio: Ohio State had a terrible game plan against Michigan, and it cost the Buckeyes dearly. I predict that Ohio State will play more loosely, putting the nation's best skill position players in the right spots, and focusing on maximizing potential mismatches to their advantage. I am doing it. — Scott Doctorman
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Will Howard realizes his final chapter at Ohio State hasn't been written yet
Texas: The Longhorns have the best and deepest roster. While all eyes are on the quarterback and Texas' offensive-minded head coach, it's the defense that holds the Longhorns back. They allow just one point per drive, the lowest in the FBS. And once the offense gets going, the Texans will be tough to beat. — Sam Carn Jr.
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Texas will go where Quinn Ewers wants, for better or worse.
Georgia: Georgia is talented, has a very tough battle (six games against top 16 teams), and most importantly will be in its healthiest shape all season — of course, at quarterback. (except for Carson Beck). The title fight will also be held in Atlanta. — Stewart Mandel
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More than anyone else, a backup QB helps Georgia — it doesn't hurt.
Notre Dame: Notre Dame's defense will get the job done. I loved how this team handled the loss to Northern Illinois, and I think that will carry over into the playoffs. The defeat cost Ireland a loss, but Marcus Freeman's side showed great determination to overcome it. — Daniel Shirley
even deeper
How Notre Dame saved its playoff hopes after its worst loss of the season
Clemson: Quinn Ewers hasn't been 100 percent since September, Arizona State will have to fly to Atlanta for the quarterfinals, and the Rose Bowl winner may be incontinent by the semifinals. Ten years of CFP history has taught us that if something good can happen to Clemson in late December, it usually will. Cade Klubnik is fully capable, Bryant Wesco Jr. is on a Justin Ross-like late-season trajectory, and Dabo Swinney has the perfect mentality for tournament football. I can't help but think. — Eric Single
even deeper
Dabo Swinney guides Clemson back to the playoffs – fool's gold or proof of concept?
So what kind of matchups will we see at the U.S. Championships in Atlanta on January 20th?
| match up | vote |
|---|---|
|
Oregon-Georgia |
10 |
|
Oregon – Notre Dame |
8 |
|
Ohio-Georgia |
3 |
|
Oregon – Pennsylvania |
2 |
|
Texas-Georgia |
2 |
|
Texas – Notre Dame |
2 |
|
Notre Dame of Ohio State |
2 |
|
Clemson Boise State |
1 |
Stewart Mandel ranked all 36 possibilities after the brackets were revealed. Thirty voters came up with eight matchups, with No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 2 Georgia being the most common with a third of votes cast. Twenty-seven of the 30 players chose at least Oregon, Ohio State or Georgia, including two who chose Texas and Georgia for the third time this season.
A special shout out to one voter who chose the chaotic Clemson State vs. Boise State bracket.
(Photo by Jaron Walker and Dillon Gabriel: Tim Warner, Ali Gradisher/Getty Images)
