Melted Arctic ice skin. Record wildfires in several states. On average, a country is warming at twice the remaining speed of the world.
Still, when Canadians go to polls on Monday, climate change is not one of the top 10 issues for voters, according to recent polls.
“That's not the purpose of this election,” said Jessica Green, a political scientist at the University of Toronto, who focuses on climate issues.
The election is about almost everyone agreeing and choosing a leader who can stand up to Donald J. Trump. The US president is threatening Canada in a trade war, if not in perfect annexation as the “51st state.”
Leading in the polls is liberal Mark Kearney, who has decades of pedigree in climate policy. For five years he was a UN envoy on climate action and finances, leading the way by 2050 a coalition of banks who had pledged to halt carbon dioxide addition to the environment through loans and investments.
Despite that resume, Carney hasn't made the climate at the heart of his campaign. When Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigned, one of Carney's first moves was to eliminate taxes on fuels, which included gasoline at pumps, which was based on emission strength.
Most Canadians have put much of that money back into rebate checks, but Mr. Carney doesn't really understand the policy and calls it “too split.”
The move, coupled with similarities between his Conservative foes, Pierre Poiliervel and Trump, and what many see, helped Carney, who rose in the polls.
“Kearney did something really smart by abolishing the consumer carbon tax. This was very unpopular and was basically the basis of Poilierve's campaign against him,” Dr. Green said. “It removed the wind from the sails of the Conservative Party.”
Mr. Carney is keenly aware of dynamics. During a recent TV discussion, he told Polyerebre “I spent years running for Justin Trudeau and the carbon tax.”
Poilliebre is the champion of Canada's huge oil and gas industry. The country is the fourth largest oil producer in the world and the fifth largest for gas. But unlike Trump, he acknowledges the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which are driving global warming.
“Canadian oil and clean natural gas need to replace coal mines around the world and reduce emissions by allowing India and other Asian countries to use gas in place of dirty coal,” he said at a press conference on the campaign trail earlier this month.
However, Carney's proposals aren't that different. He says he wants to make Canada a “superpower of both traditional and clean energy.” His platform proposes measures such as strengthening the carbon market and speeding up approval of clean energy projects.
Perhaps the biggest difference between the two candidates is their stance on Canada's oil and gas emission caps and their tax on industrial emissions. Both policies were defended by Trudeau.
Poilliebre will dispose them in line with industry demands, and Carney will protect them. According to the Canadian Climate Institute, the Industrial Carbon Tax will reduce emissions by at least three times the consumer tax, and will do more than any other policy to reduce emissions between now and 2030.
Canada is one of the world's highest per capita greenhouse gas emitters and is not tracked to meet its pledge to reduce emissions under the 2015 Paris Agreement. By 2030, it targets a reduction of at least 40-45% from the 2005 level, but the latest national emissions inventory report shows a decline of just 8.5% until 2023.
