President Trump hopes that Latin American countries will approach Washington's orbit, and has echoed Monroe's doctrine when the US claims the Western Hemisphere as its territory.
This week, Chinese leader Xi Jinping will host Brazilian President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva and other major officials in the Latin American and Caribbean in Beijing, highlighting China's continued solidity in the region. Many Latin American governments want to maintain Beijing primarily as an economic partner, but also as a counterweight to some and to the power of the US.
“What people in Latin America and the Caribbean want are not the so-called “new Monroe doctrine,” but independence and self-determination,” China's assistant foreign minister Miao Deyu told reporters in Beijing on Sunday.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the Trump administration would “place our region, America, first and first,” and Rubio's first overseas trip as secretary was in Panama, Guatemala and other countries in the region. But Trump's drastic tariffs and threat to take over the Panama Canal have a volatile leader in Latin America, particularly in countries that are already wary of Washington.
Even if Trump was not selected by name in an official statement from XI's meeting with Lula and other Latin American officials, the meaning is clear.
Matias Spektor, professor of politics and international relations at the University of Brazil's Fundação Getulio Vargas, said: “Lula's strategy is clear: diversify Brazil's alliances, reduce reliance on Washington, and assert Brazil as a mover and shaker in an increasingly multipolar world.”
Still, behind closed doors, China's discussions with Mr. Lula and other Latin American and Caribbean leaders have little to do with mutual praise. Lula is the most well-known leader who gathers in Beijing for Tuesday's meeting between officials and ministers from Latin American and Caribbean communities or Chinese officials and ministers, a group that does not include the US or Canada.
Colombia's recently elected president, Gustavo Petro, a former left-wing rebel, will also be present, Chinese media reported. However, it is unclear who else is present, and such meetings with China are usually attended by the Foreign Minister and other government officials.
Over the past 20 years, China has become an incredible buyer of minerals and other resources from customers in Brazil, Peru, Chile and other Latin Americans. Chinese products, including automobiles and electrical appliances, meet the markets in the region, and Chinese investments fund bridges, dams and ports. Brazil and other major goods exporters hope, in part, repeat what happened in Trump's first term when China faces US tariffs and China purchases more soybeans, iron ore and other products from Latin America.
Last year, trade in goods between China and Latin America reached nearly $519 billion, according to Chinese customs statistics.
Lula has been experiencing an increase in tariffs on iron, steel and fiber optic cables, which are primarily from China, due to its friendliness to Beijing. Ryan Berg, director of the Americas program at the Washington Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the local manufacturer was “very concerned” that Chinese exporters were being locked out of the US market, which would divert cheap goods.
“These are countries that already have a history of protectionism and are interested in protecting local jobs and local industries,” Berg said in an interview. “Many countries, like Brazil, have good relations with China, but nonetheless, they moved in roughly parallel to the US to protect certain industries from the possibility of becoming, for example, a dumping ground for steel and aluminum in China.”
Mexico, the second largest Latin American economy after Brazil, has so far adopted a more cautious approach in courtship with China, reflecting much larger trade ties with the United States, said Enrique Dussel Peters, professor of economics at the National Autonomous University of Mexico.
Certainly, Mexico's diplomatic attention is against the trade relations that China is making huge invasions. Mexico, which is primarily fueled by the surge in Chinese cars on Mexican roads, currently accounts for around 2.4% of China's total exports. Mexico is ahead of Brazil, which has a large population, and as China's most important export market in Latin America, absorbs just 1.7% of China's exports.
“Mexican elites and governments are torn apart from the US and China in this new triangle relationship,” said Professor Dussel Peters, author of Latin America, China and the Great Competition. “But given China's massive presence in Mexico, this is not enough for Mexico.”
XI sounded optimistic that Lula and many other major Latin American leaders could be maintained, in part through mediocre sustainability, and in part through ongoing orders of iron ore, soybeans and other commodities. Lula also expressed his hope that China can help Brazil benefit from new technologies, including space and green energy.
When Xi traveled to Brazil for the G20 Leader summit in November, he added on a state visit. This year, he may do the same when he is expected to visit Rio de Janeiro for the July summit of developing countries founded by Brazil, Russia, India and China. Biden's only visit to Brazil as president – for the G20 summit – came only after he lost the presidential election.
“The fact that we are far closer is that we have visited at a higher level less frequently than XI is a barrier to local prioritization and a bad sign from a strategic perspective,” Berg said. “I think a lot of that will change with Rubio,” he said.
In close conditions, China can focus on more orders of soybeans and other products from Brazil. “We are worried that China will crowd Brazilian manufacturers, but the broader reality is clear,” said Professor Spektor, a Brazilian academic. “China's demand supports Brazil's economic stability.”
Simon Romero In Mexico City, reports contributed.
