Narendra Modi once admired China. As the leader of a business-friendly Indian state, he has repeatedly visited India to attract investment and see how his country can learn from the economic transformation of his neighbour. China has a “special place in my heart,” he said. Chinese officials cheered his march to state power, calling him a “political star.”
But soon after Mr. Modi became prime minister in 2014, China made it clear that relations would not be so simple. I was hosting Chinese leader Xi Jinping to celebrate his 63rd birthday, sitting on a swing with him in a riverside park when hundreds of Chinese troops invaded Indian territory in the Himalayas. , a week-long standoff began.
Ten years later, relations between the world's two most populous countries have almost completely broken down. Subsequent border incursions escalated into violent clashes in 2020, threatening to lead to all-out war. Mr. Modi, a strongman who has held all the power in India and expanded ties with many other countries, seems as powerless as ever in the face of a rift with China.
Mr. Modi is seeking a third term in elections starting Friday, and the tensions weigh on his campaign's overall narrative of making India a global power and, in turn, restoring national pride. Far from its 2,100-mile border and along every thoroughfare India seeks to expand, China looms as a fierce competitor.
In India's backyard in South Asia, China uses its vast resources (the fruit of economic reforms introduced decades before India) to challenge India's prominence, co-opt partners through infrastructure deals, and It has gained access to strategic ports.
More broadly, China and India are competing to lead the developing countries of the so-called Global South. When India hosted the G20 summit last year to highlight support for poor countries, Mr. Xi was absent from the event. China is also a major stumbling block in India's coveted bid for a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council.
“Today you will probably encounter an India you have never seen before, in many ways,” said Nirupama Menon Rao, former Indian ambassador to China and the United States. “I think the Chinese are becoming more and more aware of that, and they still want to drag us down and put up barriers.”
India's break with China has presented an opportunity for Western countries to expand defense and economic ties with New Delhi, but this is a worrying development for Beijing.
India last year signed a series of agreements with the United States to enhance military cooperation. India is also moving closer to two other countries in the so-called Quad, Australia and Japan, as the group works to counter China's growing power.
Moreover, India sees an opportunity as the US and Europe look for alternatives to China for producing products. One of the early successes was the significant increase in iPhone production in India.
However, even with these openings, China continues to expose India's insecurities. China's economy is about five times the size of India's, and China remains India's second largest trading partner after the United States, exporting about six times as much as it imports. China spends more than three times as much on India's military, giving its military a significant advantage across land, sea and air.
India's military, which has long struggled to modernize, is now being forced to prepare for conflict on two fronts: China to the east and arch-rival Pakistan to the west.
Tens of thousands of troops from India and China remain on high alert in the Himalayas, four years after deadly skirmishes broke out in the disputed eastern Ladakh region, with both countries militarily We are strengthening our presence. Approximately 24 rounds of negotiations failed to result in withdrawal.
Opposition parties have sought to portray Mr. Modi as weak in the face of Chinese aggression, but the border incursions are a major political blow to Mr. Modi, given little coverage by sympathetic Indian media. is unlikely to be given.
Still, Mr. Modi has had to prioritize billions of dollars for border infrastructure and military upgrades as India still struggles to meet the basic needs of its 1.4 billion people. The government is developing plans to repopulate hundreds of border villages as a second line of defense against China's continued threat of invasion.
Mr. Modi's foreign minister, S. Jaishankar, recently acknowledged that there are “no easy answers” to the dilemma posed by India's aggressive neighbor. “They are changing, and so are we,” Jaishankar said. “How can we find equilibrium?”
In a book published in 2020, shortly after he became Modi's trusted foreign policy maker, Jaishankar wrote that tensions between the US and China were “impacting India's choices in all the world”. “It brings a global background,” he wrote. For everything. ” India's ambitions as a great power, he wrote, would require a balancing act to “engage America, manage China, develop Europe, and reassure Russia.”
India's emergence as a large, growing economy has enabled it to maintain its position in a polarized and uncertain world by working with any beneficial partner.
India has resisted American pressure to reconsider its strong ties with Russia even as it has expanded its defense ties with the United States over the past decade and doubled bilateral trade to about $130 billion in goods alone. India is also deepening its ties with Europe and the Middle East. Trade with the United Arab Emirates alone reaches $85 billion.
India is wary of becoming a pawn in the West's war with China, and has not forgotten its ruthless history with the United States, as China has been a secondary threat for much of India's modern history. It has become an unavoidable focus.
India's socialist founder was tolerant of communist China, but that common sense was shattered by a month-long war in 1962 that left thousands dead. Despite continued aggression, relations began to normalize in the 1980s, with open communication channels reducing tensions and increasing trade.
“It was a different China than before,'' said Rao, a former top diplomat.
Things changed a few years before Mr. Modi took office, she said. As its economy boomed, China began to step up, investing heavily in Belt and Road infrastructure initiatives that India saw as threatening its security and sphere of influence, and acting more aggressively on its borders and in the Indian Ocean.
Still, Mr. Modi, blacklisted by the United States for his involvement in bloody religious riots during his time as national leader, continued to reach out to the Chinese government. As prime minister, he did not allow the embarrassment of China's 2014 invasion to dampen his red-carpet welcome. His subtle message, warning that “a little toothache can paralyze the whole body,” contained hope that Mr. Xi would return.
That hope ended with deadly clashes in eastern Ladakh in 2020. It is now clear that New Delhi is complacent about China's long-term threat, with Mr. Modi pushing for road and tunnel construction in border areas to support a large military presence. This is an obvious change.
In the past five years, more than 3,200 miles of roads have been built along the border. In Kashmir, more than 2,000 workers have been busy for three years digging high-altitude tunnels to improve connectivity to Ladakh.
Once completed, the tunnel project, which will cost more than $850 million, will provide year-round access and shave hours off travel times.
“The road blockade cut off supplies to the Indian army for four months,” said project director Harpal Singh. “Once this tunnel is completed, nothing like that will ever happen again.”
Mr. Modi's government is also rebuilding hundreds of villages along the border to strengthen defenses.
Through a program called “Vibrant Villages,” the government is working to develop infrastructure, expand services and foster tourism in hopes of reversing the economic migration that has given rise to “ghost villages.”
“What India was able to do in the last 20 years, we now have to do within 20 years,” said Sonam Mulup, a retired Indian Army officer from Ladakh, regarding local infrastructure development.
“Our situation is much better now,” he said. “But when you look on the Chinese side, you see a village full of light.”
Joy Don contributed reporting from Hong Kong.