The world's power generation capacity from coal, one of the most polluting fossil fuels, is decreasing as new power plants come online in China at the same time as the pace of retirement of old power plants in the United States and Europe slows. This will increase globally in 2023.
The findings were published in the annual report of Global Energy Monitor, a nonprofit organization that tracks energy projects around the world.
Coal's enormous greenhouse gas emissions have led to calls for a rapid phase-out of coal as an energy source, with all countries in the world committed to reducing their dependence on coal. Widely agreed. However, developed economies, especially Asian countries with cheap access to domestic coal reserves, have longer time frames for that transition.
Last year, China alone accounted for two-thirds of the world's new coal-fired power plants. New factories are also opening in Indonesia, India, Vietnam, Japan, Bangladesh, Pakistan and South Korea, and typically operate for 20 to 30 years.
One silver lining is that new coal-fired power plants generally pollute less than older coal-fired plants, but scientists, climate researchers and activists say coal alone is the only way to avoid the most dire consequences. They agree that we need to transition away from all fossil fuels as quickly as possible. About global warming.
“Right now, the future of coal is a two-part story: what we do with the coal-fired power plants that are currently in operation, and what we do with the last remaining coal-fired power plants that have already been built. How do we find out?” says Flora Champenois. She is one of the authors of the report. “If it weren't for the China boom, we would already be there.”
China, and to a lesser extent India, are planning to build coal-fired power plants for years from now. In 2023, construction of new coal-fired power plants in China will reach an eight-year high. If China builds everything else it is proposing, it would add a fleet equal to his one-third of the fleet currently in operation.
Currently, China accounts for about 60% of the world's coal usage, followed by India and the United States. India is most intensively dependent on coal, with 80% of its electricity generation coming from coal.
The flip side of coal's growth is that plant retirements are slowing in Western countries. The number of generators retired in 2023 was lower than in any year in the past decade. Phasing out all operating coal-fired power plants by 2040 would require, on average, approximately two coal-fired power plants to close per week.
Analysts say the economic slowdown in 2023 was temporary as the US, UK and European Union countries set different goals to close all existing coal-fired power plants well before 2040. He said it was possible. International Energy Agency modeling suggests consistency with this goal. To limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, rich countries must phase out coal by 2030, and other countries must phase out coal by 2040.
“We've been saying that 2024 is the year that coal will peak,” said Carlos Torres Diaz, senior vice president at Rystad Energy. “But I don't think it's clear at this point whether we can achieve that. Either way, we're getting closer to it.”
Western countries have relied on coal for more than a century, which is why coal accounts for a significant portion of historic greenhouse gas emissions.
To balance fiscal responsibility for the energy transition, rich countries will support some coal-dependent developing countries, such as Indonesia, Vietnam, and South Africa, to build out renewable energy so they can transition more quickly. has pooled tens of billions of dollars in loans. Stay away from coal. But for now, much of that money has yet to be disbursed as stakeholders resolve their differences.
For many developing countries, coal has one big advantage. That means the price is low. It has also proven less volatile in price than oil and gas, the other major fossil fuels used to produce electricity.
For example, Bangladesh was increasing its gas production capacity. However, fluctuations in prices and availability, mainly due to shocks related to the Ukraine war, are prompting a rethink and reinvestment in coal.
Analysts say the same dynamics apply to some extent in China. The damage the pandemic has inflicted on China's economy has made it more likely that power companies will turn to coal, the cheapest fuel.
China is also leading the world in expanding renewable energy. This growth far exceeds, and in some cases is linked to, coal's growth. The Chinese government says much of the coal the country uses or plans to use will serve as a replacement when renewable energy production falls and the grid needs more energy. ing.
“The data for China is not completely clear, but while the number of coal-fired power plants increases, it is also possible that their utilization rates will decline,” Diaz said. “But when it comes to coal, given that China is by far the biggest player, what happens there will set global trends.”