As the birthplace of the Industrial Revolution and once a huge coal-fueled empire, Britain is on its way to becoming a “clean energy superpower.”
At least that's the promise of Keir Starmer, who will become prime minister, and whose Labour party is expected to win parliamentary elections on Thursday, ending 14 years of Conservative rule.
Labour made big election promises on climate change, and how they are implemented in practice will affect not only the daily lives of British people, but also Britain's place in the world.
The UK is one of the leading climate polluters in history – it's the country where the Industrial Revolution began in the 18th century, giving birth to a global economy powered by coal, oil and gas, and with it the greenhouse gas emissions that are warming the planet – so the speed and scale of the UK's energy transition will be closely watched by other industrialised and emerging economies.
The UK sees itself as a global climate leader. In 2008, the UK was the first major developed country to pass climate change legislation. Since then, UK emissions have fallen dramatically. In 2021, the UK government set a legally binding target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 78% by 2035 compared to 1990 levels, in one of the world's most ambitious climate laws.
But getting there is the hard part: The new administration will be confronted with a cost-of-living crisis at home, geopolitical turmoil abroad and a series of extreme weather events exacerbated by rising fossil fuel emissions.
As the new administration gets going, there are three things to note.
What will it take to move away from fossil fuels?
Starmer's election manifesto promised “zero carbon electricity by 2030”.
Luckily for him, the country is already moving in that direction.
Canada no longer relies on coal for most of its electricity: its last coal-fired power plant is scheduled to close in September. Coal provided 40 percent of Canada's electricity in 2012, but now accounts for almost none, according to an analysis by Carbon Brief, an independent climate news site.
The challenge now is to reduce reliance on gas: in 2023, gas provided just over 30% of the UK's electricity. The government must either reduce this to zero by 2030, or find a way to capture and landfill the greenhouse gases that gas-fired power plants emit.
Labour leaders also say they will double onshore wind capacity, quadruple offshore wind capacity and triple solar power.
Jos German, executive director of the European Climate Foundation, said the zero-carbon electricity pledge was a “stretch goal” that would require changes to the law on approving wind and solar projects.
What does the future hold for North Sea oil?
North Sea oil production has declined steadily over the past two decades and is expected to continue to decline until the middle of this century.
Still, the issue of oil and gas rights in the North Sea is a politically sensitive one.
Last year, the Conservative chancellor, Rishi Sunak, said Britain should “maximise” its North Sea oil and gas production. He introduced a new licensing system, leading to the resignation of the former energy secretary. Causing “future harm.”
Mr Starmer's party has said it will honour existing licences but refrain from issuing any new ones.
Oil and gas companies in the UK already pay a 75% tax, and the new Labour government has vowed to raise this slightly to 78%.
There is another problem: Scotland.
Scottish nationalists have been pushing for a greater say in the North Sea oil and gas region because it lies in Scottish waters, and any decline in production there would hit communities on Scotland's northeast coast first and hardest, those who rely on the industry for jobs.
Will climate change policy remain as polarized as ever?
Unlike the US, there was broad political consensus in the UK about the need to address climate change – indeed, climate action was a favourite of Conservatives.
Former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher sounded the alarm about climate change. Fellow Conservative Prime Minister Theresa May led the drive to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, meaning the UK would have to by law remove as many greenhouse gases from the atmosphere as it emits by the middle of the century. In 2021, Boris Johnson's government pledged to cut emissions by 78% by 2035.
Recently, that goal has shifted – Mr Sunak has argued that going green is too costly – and for example the planned 2030 ban on new petrol and diesel car sales has been postponed to 2035.
Starmer is likely to reinstate the ban until 2030. He has also promised to double funding for energy efficiency programmes and set up a new national energy company that would supposedly cut energy bills.
At the same time, there is pressure from Nigel Farage's far-right Reform UK party to completely abandon the net-zero target by 2050. Exit polls predict that Farage's party will have a surprisingly large base in Parliament, reflecting the rise of the far right across Europe.