In a speech in Tampa on Tuesday, President Biden is expected to condemn Florida's soon-to-be-enforced six-week abortion ban and blame former President Donald J. Trump for enacting it.
The Biden campaign has made abortion one of its top priorities, with polls showing that it is one of the few topics on which voters have more confidence in Biden than in Trump.
Florida has voted reliably Republican in recent elections, but Biden's team has expressed optimism that the state could be involved this year. They point to the fact that in November, Floridians will vote on a ballot initiative that guarantees access to abortions “before viability,” or approximately 24 weeks, overturning the six-week ban. .
The vote could motivate liberals and independent voters to go to the polls, but Biden will need to invest heavily in Florida if he is to defeat Trump, and his campaign has yet to do that. do not have.
“The idea that Donald Trump is in control of the country couldn't be further from the truth,” said Biden campaign communications director Michael Tyler. “He not only owns abortion rights across the country, but he also owns the abortion restrictions that we're seeing in Florida. Yes, that means we have a chance. ”
Nationally, Democrats have been emboldened since an Arizona court upheld the state's near-total abortion ban, arguing that it showed the stakes of electing Republicans. They argue that Trump is responsible for the regulations that have enacted bans in Florida, Arizona and other states since Supreme Court justices appointed by the former president helped reverse Roe v. Wade. are doing. “Trump did this” has become a frequent messaging slogan for the Biden campaign.
Trump criticized the bans in Florida and Arizona, but said decisions about the legality of abortion should be left up to each state. Reversing his previous position, he said he no longer supports a national abortion ban and blamed the Republican Party's losses in recent elections on its harsh anti-abortion stance.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis signed a six-week abortion ban last year to court right-wing voters during his failed bid for the Republican presidential nomination. The Florida Supreme Court upheld the ban this month. It will go into effect on May 1, one week after Biden's speech in Tampa. DeSantis' office declined to comment on the president's trip to Florida.
Debbie Mucarsel Powell, a former Democratic congresswoman from Miami who is challenging Republican Sen. Rick Scott, is in Florida to talk about abortion. He said the Biden campaign should not give up on the nation's third-ranked state.
“Florida is a purple state,” Ms. Mucarsel-Powell said. “It's an independent nation.”
Even if abortion were the motive, Democrats would have a tough time campaigning in Florida. Trump deftly ran the state in 2020. DeSantis won re-election two years later. And the number of Republican voters in the state has skyrocketed since Trump entered politics. There are now nearly 900,000 more active Republican voters registered than Democrats, who for years outnumbered Republicans.
Advertising costs are also very high in the state. Although the Biden campaign has a significant economic advantage compared to Trump's campaign, it does not spend as much in Florida compared to key battlegrounds. Campaign aides were vague about how much they planned to spend in the state.
Asked how much his campaign would invest in Florida, Tyler said, “The president is traveling there.” “We have staff on the ground. You've seen our paid investments starting to show up in Florida. This is one of the ways we're going to get 270 electoral votes, and we're is going to take that very seriously.”
Since Roe's death, Democrats across the country have had unexpected success defending abortion rights at voting booths, including in red states like Kentucky, Kansas and Ohio.
But unlike many other states, Florida requires at least 60% support for an amendment to pass. To reach that high threshold, supporters of constitutional reform would need to appeal to a broad coalition of voters, including independents and Republicans.
“The focus right now is not how this will affect turnout,” said Lauren Brenzel, director of Yes on 4, a major group supporting the amendment. “The focus will be on how this policy is seriously harming and endangering women.”
Republican state Rep. Alex Andrade, who voted for the six-week ban, said Democrats lost Florida in 2016 and 2020 and watched DeSantis upend traditional Democratic strongholds. She said it is foolish to think that abortion will “solve things.” Like Miami-Dade County.
“Their political machine is ignorant,” Andrade said.
Florida voters have approved liberal-leaning ballot questions in recent elections, while also electing Republican politicians. But successful initiatives such as medical marijuana, restoring voting rights for felons, and raising the minimum wage never faced the organized opposition that critics of abortion bills would have.
Opponents include Mr. DeSantis, who recently said publicly that the abortion measure is too broad. Last week, he emphasized that he would overturn a state law that requires parental consent before a minor child can have an abortion. The abortion measure explicitly leaves a separate provision in state law that requires parents to be notified of abortions of minors.
“Notification is after the fact,” DeSantis said at an event in Hialeah Gardens, Florida. “It is completely unacceptable to take away parental consent for the benefit of minors.”
Trump, who lives in Florida, has not said how he will vote on the abortion referendum.