WASHINGTON — President Joe Biden's reelection campaign chairman says he doesn't consider Florida a battleground state in the 2024 election but is “bullish” about winning in North Carolina, another state won by Donald Trump in the last election.
The Biden campaign aggressively touted Florida as a win for Biden after the Florida Supreme Court upheld the state's strict abortion law in March, clearing the way for a referendum to guarantee abortion rights to Florida voters on the November ballot.
But in an interview with PAC News published Monday, campaign chair Jen O'Malley Dillon said “no” when asked directly if she viewed Florida as a battleground state.
Florida, which has 30 electoral votes, last voted Democratic in 2012, when President Barack Obama defeated Republican Mitt Romney by just 1 percentage point. Florida has leaned Democratic in the two elections since then. Former President Trump beat Hillary Clinton 48.6% to 47.4% in 2016 and widened his lead over Biden to 3.3 percentage points in 2020.
In a statement to USA Today, the Biden campaign argued that the president can win Florida in November even though it is not a key battleground, and touted recent campaign investments in the state, including television ads airing this week.
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The Biden campaign has hired 20 more people this month, bringing its staff to 28 in Florida and will have 13 offices across the state by the end of this week. Biden visited Tampa, Florida, in April to discuss abortion rights, and Vice President Kamala Harris spoke in Jacksonville, Florida, in May.
“Florida is a battleground state for President Biden and the Democratic Party from top to bottom in the race,” Biden campaign director Dan Kanninen said in a statement. “The President has the ability to tell a powerful story on the issues that matter most to Floridians, which is why our campaign continues to expand our presence and investment in the state.”
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Florida Democratic Party Chairwoman Nikki Fried echoed that sentiment in a statement, saying, “Florida Democrats are doing the real work it takes to take back Florida,” pointing to the party's organizational efforts in the state.
“We're not ignorant of the challenges ahead, but we're laying the foundation for Democratic success — not just in this election, but for years and decades to come. Don't take Florida lightly,” she said.
The most competitive states in the 2024 presidential election are the six “blue wall” battleground states that Biden won in 2020: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.
The Biden campaign has been spending heavily on North Carolina, which it lost to Trump by 1.3 percentage points in 2020, as a likely candidate to win, while the Trump campaign has said it is considering retaking two states held by Biden — Virginia and Minnesota — to expand the map.
“We have a number of paths to victory,” O'Malley Dillon told PAC-News, referring to the 270 electoral votes needed to secure victory, and later highlighted the Tar Heel State in an interview: “I'm bullish on North Carolina. I'm not kidding when I say that, because I was also bullish on Arizona (four years ago) and that's because we looked at the state very closely.”
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Biden flipped historically Republican Arizona to the Democratic stronghold in 2020, becoming the first Democrat to win the state since Bill Clinton in 1996.
Why am I so bullish on North Carolina?
North Carolina last voted Democrat in 2008 and has 16 electoral votes, but it's an attractive state for Biden and Democrats for several reasons.
North Carolina, where Biden lost to Trump in the 2020 presidential election, had the smallest margin of victory of any state he lost, and the state also saw a surge in college-educated voters around Charlotte and a sizable Black population in Raleigh's “Research Triangle,” similar to how once-Republican Georgia has turned into a Democratic advantage.
“First of all, we only lost by 1.3 percentage points in 2020 and didn't play a game there. Secondly, there's a demographic factor, of course, but I don't think that's enough,” O'Malley said of North Carolina.
O'Malley Dillon, Biden's 2020 campaign manager, pointed to the “extreme legislation” passed in Republican-majority North Carolina, including new abortion restrictions, and to North Carolina's Republican gubernatorial candidate, Mark Robinson, saying, “We have a candidate who is way past the extreme running for governor.”
Democrats believe the state's new abortion law, which bans most abortions after 12 weeks of pregnancy, will help energize their base, and they believe the candidacy of Republican Lt. Governor Robinson, who has made a string of controversial comments, will help Biden. Robinson is running against North Carolina Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein to replace outgoing Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper.
“When you put all of that together, it shows that (North Carolina) is in a really favorable position,” O'Malley Dillon said.
Trump currently leads Biden by 5.8 percentage points in North Carolina, according to a Real Clear Politics average of polls, and Trump leads Biden by 7.6 percentage points in Florida.
Joey Garrison can be reached at X @joeygarrison.