This morning, the New York Times/Siena College polls in Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona, and the first Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena poll in Pennsylvania, among others. Introducing new polls in battleground states.
The results of the presidential election might have been surprising a year ago, but they are hardly surprising now. Donald J. Trump leads in five of the six states, with Biden narrowing his lead in Michigan. Mr. Trump's strength is largely due to his appeal to young, black, and Hispanic voters.
Even more surprising are the results in the U.S. Senate. This is the first time I've asked about this year's Senate races, but Democratic candidates are leading in all four states I surveyed: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada.
Democrats are not only in the lead, but in a completely unconventional way, with normal levels of support from young and nonwhite voters, even as Biden struggles at the top. Seems to be in the lead.
Nevada was the birthplace of this shocking ticket splitting. Among registered voters, Trump led the polls by a staggering 12 points, with a staggering 9-point lead among Hispanic voters and a 13-point lead among voters ages 18 to 29.
But everything seems “normal” in the Senate race. Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen has a two-point lead over the Republican front-runner among registered voters, 46-27 among 18-29s and 46-28 among Hispanics. Ta.
Notably, 28% of Trump's Hispanic supporters and 26% of his younger supporters support Rosen.
This level of crossover voting has been extremely rare in recent years, but was fairly common before 2020. In fact, these results are very reminiscent of the 2016 presidential election, when Trump made strides in white working-class areas. Hillary Clinton surged in college-educated areas, but Senate and House results by county still largely followed pre-2016 patterns.
With polls showing Mr. Trump again gaining ground with demographics, it may not be all that surprising to see split ticket payments return.
You can read the full presidential election coverage here and the Senate coverage here.
Some outtakes.
What does splitting the ticket mean for Biden?
There is a legitimate debate about whether Biden can do it. Really It performs very poorly among young, black, and Hispanic voters. After all, we've never seen anything like this before, and polls are far from perfect.
But, to me at least, the relatively “normal” down vote result means that Trump's gains among young and non-white voters are probably real, i.e. due to some kind of systemic polling error. This strengthens the argument that it is not a product.
This is consistent with other indicators (such as party registration numbers and recalled 2020 voting preferences) that suggest the poll is reaching people who typically vote Democratic, who support Biden. I just haven't done it.
And historically, large polling errors tend to occur systematically. For example, in 2016, polls not only missed Trump's presidential victory in the Wisconsin Senate race, but also Ron Johnson's victory. Similarly, 2020 polls overstated the prospects of Democratic candidates like Sarah Gideon, Gary Peters, and Steve Bullock in every way as much as they exaggerated Mr. Biden's prospects.
That said, there may be some good news for Biden here. These voters have not yet completely abandoned the Democratic Party and may still return to Mr. Biden's side.
What's happening to potential voters in Michigan?
One of the most unusual results of the poll was the wide gulf between Michigan's registered voters and potential voters.
Overall, Mr. Trump led by 7 points among registered voters (the broad range of people registered to vote in a state).
But Mr. Biden held a one-point lead among likely voters, a small group that represents the likely voters who will actually vote this November.
I think that gap is more than a little hard to believe. Michigan voters are required to support Trump by about a 30-point margin, even though Biden has a narrow lead among those who actually showed up to vote.
But the last Michigan poll by The Times and Siena also showed an unusually wide gap between registered voters and likely voters, with Trump leading by 5 points among registered voters but not among likely voters. It's worth noting that Biden and Trump had the same number.
The poll found that Michigan voters who said they were “somewhat likely” (or less likely) to vote supported Trump by a 26-point margin, 54% to 28%.
Those who had never voted in the 2020 election supported Trump by a 34-point margin, 62% to 28%.
Arab and Muslim voters
A previous Times-Siena poll in battleground states found signs of large-scale defections from Mr. Biden among a small sample of Muslim or Arab voters.
I found it again.
The overall poll showed Trump with a 57-25 lead among Middle Eastern, North African and Muslim voters. Those who said they voted in the 2020 election reported supporting Biden by a similar but opposite margin, 56-35.
When Arab or Muslim voters who did not support Biden were asked about the most important issues in the race, about 70% said foreign policy or the war in Gaza.