Is President Biden leading in the polls? There have been signs since last month's State of the Union address, the latest hint being a New York Times/Siena College poll released Saturday morning.
Among likely voters nationwide, Donald J. Trump led Biden by one point, 46% to 45%. This marks a slight improvement for the president since February, when Trump had a 4-point lead among likely voters.
While a one-point difference cannot accurately be called a “Biden reversal,” the results add to a growing list of polls that show him gradually improving in the rankings over the past month.
So far, 16 national polling organizations (of varying quality) have conducted polls before and after the State of the Union address. Polls after the State of the Union show Biden doing on average about 1.4 percentage points better than previous polls by the same polling organization.
A 1.4 point change in a poll is usually not very noteworthy. Since it is small, even if it is genuine, it may not last long. But it takes on even more significance in the context of the past six months and the skepticism among some Democrats about Mr. Biden's candidacy.
Mr. Trump has held an unbroken lead in opinion polls since October, even though a rising stock market and rising consumer confidence appeared to be creating the conditions for Mr. Biden's reversal. The president's failure to capitalize on the economic upturn against a candidate charged with several federal crimes was a major reason for pessimism about his chances. It seemed like his age (81) might be a disqualifier for many voters, or even that large parts of the country might have given up on him.
The movement in Mr. Biden's direction last month was small, but it may be enough to suggest he is starting to benefit from an improving political climate. The last month has been full of the kinds of events and news that seem potentially advantageous to him.
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The primaries are over. A rematch between Trump and Biden is becoming a reality, and it could help Biden.
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The State of the Union address helped calm concerns about the Democratic Party's age that dominated political conversation in February.
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Abortion is in the news again. In recent weeks, state court rulings have seen a six-week abortion ban soon become law in Florida and reinstated a 19th-century ban in Arizona. This week, amid calls for the Times/Siena poll, Google searches for abortion reached their highest level since the 2022 midterm elections.
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Biden's election campaign is progressing. In the wake of the State of the Union address, the campaign launched an aggressive and largely uncontested initial effort in battleground states, both on the ground and in the air.
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Consumer sentiment is rising. This was already the case in February, but it is reasonable to expect there to be a lag between improving economic conditions and Mr. Biden's political gains.
Despite these positive trends, Biden remains trailing in the polls. Trump's approval rating remains in the low 30s, with just 41% saying they have a favorable view of the president, far lower than four years ago and the current polling of Trump voters. Lower than it looks. Voters still believe the economy is in bad shape and disapprove of Biden's economic response by a nearly 2-to-1 margin.
But if the past month had been completely unhelpful for Biden, doubts about his candidacy would have only deepened. In fact, it's easier to imagine further benefits in the future if he makes a few changes to his approach.
With seven months until the election, it's not unrealistic to think that, even if it's not a certainty. Many voters remain uninterested. This is especially true among the less engaged younger and nonwhite voters who are currently boosting Mr. Trump's strength in the polls.
In theory, an incumbent president who runs for office while maintaining a healthy economy should be at an advantage.
You can read the full survey here.
What about Kennedy?
We did not list Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as a presidential candidate. He is on the ballot in very few states, and adding him makes it difficult to compare results with those from previous polls.
However, this may be the last time he is excluded from the Times-Siena poll. First, he may succeed in winning more votes in the coming weeks. Another is that it will be less important to compare our survey with post-2023 polls and more important to facilitate comparisons with polls taken in the fall. By then, Mr. Kennedy hopes to be on the ballot everywhere.
With that possibility in mind, we have taken small interim steps. Interviewers were able to record when respondents said they supported Kennedy, even if they did not list him as a candidate. Overall, when asked about the Biden-Trump matchup, just under 2% of respondents said they supported Kennedy.